#voterturnout

200% voter turnout in two wards in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

While the election looks to be a foregone conclusion for Biden, evidence has surfaced as to the ridiculously lax controls in places like Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The most striking feature of the data is a fact that cries out for clarification: in seven wards, voter turnout appears to have exceeded 100 percent.  In two of those wards, turnout exceeded 200 percent.  In another 15 wards, voter turnout exceeded 95 percent.  Joe Biden carried 21 of the 22 wards of the 95-plus-percent wards.  But then again, he carried all but one of the 67 additional wards in which the turnout was above 90 percent and won 80 percent of the vote citywide.

In 25 wards, Biden received 97 percent or more of the vote, none higher than 98 percent.  Based on exit polls, it is highly likely that these were overwhelmingly black districts.  No other demographic could produce those numbers.”

One suspects that Democratic operatives could not afford a repeat of Philadelphia 2012, when Barack Obama received 100 percent of the votes in 59 voting districts. 

Barack Obama outscored Romney by a combined 19,605 to 0 votes cast in these 59 districts.  Fidel Castro never did this well.  That said, not a single major media outlet followed up on the Philadelphia story.

Then one wonders why US elections end up in court…

Will apathetic US voters come out of the woodwork?

We look at voter trends in the US going back to 1828 to see the pattern of voting trends as a % of total voting age population (TVAP). We also include the political party that won in that year by colour – GOP (red), Democrat (blue).

Since 1968, votes as a % of TVAP has failed to beat the 60% threshold in a presidential election year. On Trump’s victory in 2016 we declared that the one thing he was guaranteed to do is highlight the importance of voting. Will we see it on November 3rd?

If we assume that 60% is breached for TVAP an extra 13.2 million votes could be cast. 70% would equate to an extra 38.2 million votes and assuming enough people registered, the peak of 81.8% of TVAP would see a staggering 67.7 million extra votes.

To be put that in context vs 2016 when 136.67 million votes were cast, 60%, 70% and 81.8% TVAP would equate to a further 9.7%, 27.9% and 49.5% respectively.

As we write, a record 28 million ballots have been reported cast. Reporting states with party registration data: CA, CO, FL, IA, KS, KY, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, PA, SD show that:

23.5m ballots were requested by Democrats. 6 million returned.

13.2m ballots were requested by Republicans. 2.66m returned.

14.7m ballots were requested by those with no party affiliation. 2.2m returned.

Even stripping out COVID and the desire for mail-in/absentee ballots, will gross turnout simply render predictions as useless as 2016? Perhaps 10 million+ new silent voters may roar. We watch with interest.

Does the data show Donald in the dumpster?

Midterm

This is a simple schematic of first term presidents and the results at the ballot box of their first mid term. Since 1910, the incumbent parties have invariably lost ground. More interestingly, Democrats had control of either/both House of Reps and Senate during Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Sr – all Republicans. Republican Presidents Taft, Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower and Trump lost the House at the midterms. Truman, Clinton and Obama suffered the same fate for the Democrats.

Trump achieved the highest number of Senate seats taken by a first term Republican president for over 100 years. George W Bush achieved rising numbers for HoR/Senate  post 9/11 but only Democrats have achieved the feat – Woodrow Wilson, FDR and JFK. Perhaps the irrelevance of the outcomes in the mid-terms is that despite the floggings Wilson, Truman, Ike, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama all were comfortably reelected for a second term.

Given the headwinds Trump was facing from the mainstream media, his unorthodox outbursts, twitter tirades and so forth, the electorate didn’t grant the Democrats a huge gift  they were expecting. Even worse they gave Trump a bigger authority to appoint SC justices should an opportunity arise by bumping his numbers in the Senate. Not surprising given the shocking gutter level political theatre over Justice Kavanaugh, vindicated by  victims confessing they had lied.

The Democrats should still be concerned that the $70mn spent on Beto O’Rourke came to nothing.  Beyonce also endorsed Beto. Oprah endorsed Abrams in Georgia – who is likely to lose. Taylor Swift endorsed Bredesen – who also lost. All four candidates openly supported by Obama lost. So much for celebrity power swaying electorates. It probably had a counter effect.

Even worse, in Nevada a brothel owner and reality TV star won his race despite dying last month. It is hard to work out what is the bigger tragedy. Voting for someone dead or being the competing Democrat to lose to a dead person. A Republican is to be appointed to the seat by county officials.

We shouldn’t forget that the Republicans had the highest number of sitting member retirements at a first midterm in the House of Representatives for 88 years. 25 seats had a new face. Republicans won re-election as governors in New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland – three of them deep blue states. Where was the mainstream media on that?

Midterm VT.png

Turnout was good (for a mid term). 48.1% voted in 2018. In the last 100 years the average has been 41%. Only in 1966, did the first midterm of LBJ exceed this level at 48.7%. So much for either party causing a red or blue wave. Less than half of eligible voters showed up on November 6th 2018. More cared, but not enough.

Felons make for an interesting outlier subset. While it is hard to know their exact voting intentions, for the Gubernatorial in Georgia, would 219,431 felons have made a difference for Abrams? She trails Kemp by just under 100,000 votes. So if 55% of felons (the Georgia midterm turnout ratio) voted, 120,687 votes were up for grabs. Were it legal for Georgian state felons to vote, she would have been wise to campaign there.

Felons

Now that the Democrats have the lower house, one wonders why they have put Nancy Pelosi in charge of the House? This is possibly to be contested. Up to fifty Democrat congressmen might oppose her for Speaker. Trump couldn’t wish for a better adversary as her litany of gaffes will undoubtedly embarrass her party. Pelosi represents pretty much everything Americans have come to despise about the Democrats.

More worryingly, Maxine Waters is being put in charge of the Financial Services Committee. At a point in the cycle where financial acumen is probably most required, this is an embarrassment, made worse by her open calls for payback.

The Democrats need fresh faces. Ones that will look for bipartisan support. If the Democrats embark upon a cocktail of revenge politics and look to push for investigation after investigation in order to impeach Trump but end up with nothing they will be seen for what they are – a party completely self-absorbed with petty vendettas. The toxic Senate debacle should have given them warning enough that voters won’t tolerate more political roadkill like that going forward.  Yet Pelosi will likely use her subpoena powers to drag everything through the gutter instead of working to improve things for Americans. Failure here will only lead the electorate to conclude they wasted two years and gift wrap 2020 for Trump.

This mid-term election was anything but a slam dunk. Put aside personal hatred of Trump, look at the data and see that Americans did not write him off as many pundits predicted. It should be more scary to realise that he is probably more Teflon-Don than he was in 2016. Second biggest mid-term turnout in history, highest net gain of seats in the Senate in 100 years for a first term GOP president, record dollars thrown at Democrat candidates backed by Trump-hating billionaires. At the end of the day folks, this is just the data talking.

Mid Term Turnout.png