#violentcrime

Police Brutality data in the US

Deaths by Police by Year

Police brutality has reared its ugly head after the completely unnecessary death of George Floyd at the hands of the Minneapolis Police. We don’t need to add anything to this unjustified action. It spoke for itself. It is fair to say that the overwhelming majority of Americans have been united behind the need to end such injustice with a bipartisan spirit. The optics of Floyd’s murder were terrible. Unfortunately, the mainstream media (MSM) wasted no time taking advantage of feeding their political narratives.

Looting stores, trashing police cruisers, torching police stations and throwing bricks through store windows is ‘rioting’, yet the media has been all too happy to label it ‘protesting’. Many protestors were peaceful but they just don’t make for TV and ratings. If it bleeds, it leads.

Journalistic integrity has been even more absent than usual. Statements released by the police in cities affected have revealed that most of those arrested/identified for criminal acts such as theft, destruction of property or arson have been from out of town/state and from every racial background imaginable. Many rioters have filmed their own crimes and posted them on social media. One hopes that the police track them, find them and jail them. Not for misdemeanours but proper crimes befitting their brazen actions.

Hollywood celebrities Steve Carrell, Janelle Monae, Seth Rogen, Ben Schwartz and Halsey all donated to a Minnesota Freedom Fund to help bail out rioters. That ought to tell us something. Afterall they are unaffected behind gated mansions but only too happy to lecture the rest of us on societal morals. There is no room to morally preen in the midst of a tragedy.

It has been despicable to see protests meant to honour the memory of an innocent black man and raise awareness of deaths at the hands of the police take a backseat to partisan politics and media clickbait.

Death by Police

Twitter wasted no time calling out President Trump for “glorifying violence” with his poorly conveyed “when the looting starts, shooting starts” tweet. The MSM wasted no time in pointing out Trump has been behind all of the racial division over the past 3.5 years despite the fact that deaths at the hands of law enforcement have remained relatively stagnant since 2013 as shown in the first chart.

Race-based hate crime over the past two decades has more than halved. In the last two decades, the FBI reports that anti-black hate crime has fallen from 0.0131% to 0.0046% of their representative population.

Since Trump took office, crime rates have fallen across the board. The FBI reports the following statistics.

US Crime

Why isn’t crime exploding through the roof if there is so much division and hatred across America? Could it be thanks to the economic prosperity in his term in office?

In January 2020 a poll taken by Gallup showed that race relations had improved to 36% under Trump from the 22% at the end of Obama’s second term. Yet the media is obsessed with painting Trump out to be the key instigator in fanning racism. Of course, it would have to be in order for a media obsessed with one mission –  removing him from office.

To them, Trump has enabled the unforgivable actions of the individual law enforcement officer in question, Derek Chauvin. It fits their headlines. The Daily Beast ran with,

Race-Baiter Donald Trump Is America’s THUG-in-Chief – The president routinely endorses and encourages police brutality, vilifies non-violent protesters of color, and spits out racist views.’

Let’s deal with the facts about police brutality.

Around 7,700 people have been killed by police across America between Jan 1, 2013 and Dec 31, 2019.  That is an average of 1,100 per annum. An unfortunate statistic by any measure.

71% of those that were killed were reported as having possessed a weapon at the time of death. 14% were unarmed (including possession of a toy gun, BB gun or air rifle). 8.5% of cases were unclear. 74% of those with a weapon had a lethal firearm.  22% had sharp implements (e.g. swords, knives, machetes) and the balance had blunt objects (e.g. baseball bats, pipes, clubs). 

On the flip side, no one mentions those police officers that die in the line of duty. Between Jan 1, 2013,and Dec 31, 2019, 327 have died from gunfire or assault by an assailant. Many more have succumbed to accidents in carrying out their jobs. Out of a law enforcement population of around 688,000 across America that is a death rate by an assault of 0.0077% per annum.

Deaths by Police per Million

As a percentage of the representative population, black Americans have been killed by police at a higher rate than most other races. This is a fact. With the exception of 5 states – Montana, New Hampshire, North & South Dakota and Wyoming.

Over the last seven years, Utah has the highest rate of black deaths per head of population at 0.0045%, 9x that of other races over that period. Annualising that figure comes to 0.0006%. That is to say, 99.9994% of blacks in Utah are unlikely to die at the gunpoint of a police officer. To put that into perspective, a black individual would have a 280x higher chance of dying of Parkinson’s disease than from a police officer in Utah. A police officer has a 13x higher likelihood of dying than a black person in Utah as a percentage of their respective representative populations.

Black Deaths by Police by Year

In absolute numbers, the Chicago Police Department has been responsible for the deaths of 56 black Americans in the last 7 years. Note that the big cities in America have been responsible for 39% of all black deaths at the hands of the police.

We colour coded the party affiliation of the city mayors (Democrat (blue), Republican (red), Independent (green). This is for illustrative purposes only.

We wish to make it clear that we don’t think party affiliation drives individual police officer behaviour. It should be noted that city mayors have control over the conduct of the police force including the appointment of police chiefs. So political positions to a degree would have a bearing on the way police operate in terms of targets and functions at the margin. Perhaps this is why Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot told Trump “F U” due to his criticism of mayors around the country not being able to quell rioter in their cities.

Former Minnesota Police Department (MPD) officer Derek Chauvin had 17 misconduct complaints against him over his two-decade career. Despite charges of using derogatory language and one case of killing someone he was wrestling with, Chauvin only received letters of reprimand.

Were policy procedures to blame? The MPD was subject to a federal review of procedures in 2015. The statistics revealed that few officers were fired or suspended for claims against them. The majority were either reprimanded or given extra coaching. Yet MPD still continued to see complaints pile up.

Democrats tend to run more populous cities (e.g. NY, Chicago, Los Angeles) which have higher levels of absolute income disparity and poverty, even if not reflected in relative terms.

White Deaths by Police by Year

Phoenix PD has killed 40 whites since 2013.  3,385 whites have died from the gun barrel of the police, 84% of them outside of the big cities.

Per 10000

Columbus Division of Police has the highest rate among big cities at 40.8 deaths per 10,000 arrests, or 0.408%, 4x the big cities average. Los Angeles PD which has the highest rate of actual deaths at the hands of police had a death-to-arrest rate of 0.179%. Put simply, on average there is a 99.9% survival rate for those arrested in a big city.

Deaths by Gender

Males represent nearly 95% of all deaths at the hands of police. Women just over 5%. Transgender and unknown make up 0.25%.

Men

Of that white males comprise 43% of deaths by police with black males 26% and Hispanic males at 18%. As a percentage of the representative population, black males are dying at twice the rate of their population cohort and around 3x that of whites. Hispanic males dying in line with their population cohort.

women

When it comes to female deaths at the hands of the police, whites make up 57% of the total vs 18% black and 13% Hispanic. Still skewed against blacks relative to their representative populations.

In summary

Before this tragedy, crime rates had been falling precipitously. Race relations had been improving and hate crimes are well below long term rates. Yet the media would have us believe that things have never been worse and that the police are unhinged thugs looking to kill. Things are not perfect but change doesn’t happen overnight. Even when America unites to stand against this crime, fringe elements do their best to use the incident to tear it down for their own agendas.

Perhaps we should show that there are more people out there that want an end to the misinformation of the division. How disappointing for so many police who don’t want their diligent work besmirched by fake news surrounding the actions of a tiny minority within their ranks.

The mainstream media is truly the enemy of the people.

What Australia’s authorities can learn from Germany’s extremist boom

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Of course the easiest thing to do is label the Melbourne-based True Blue Crew (TBC) a bunch of racist bigots. It’s members view themselves as patriotic vigilantes. TBC is a group filling the void left wide open by the politically correct who in its mind are glossing over the things that matter to everyday Australians. One can debate their motives til the cows come home but growing numbers suggest that the political class is not responding. Germany is seeing a similar wave of vigilante behavior. Is it any wonder that Merkel is struggling to form a coalition with the surge in the AfD party to 14% of the vote. One Nation is at 10%. Notice a trend?

TBC, according to its Facebook page is planning to meet and then march through the streets of Melbourne to protest a “lack of action by the courts”  They have a point. An opinion piece in The Australian this week highlighted this leniency:

When it comes to sentencing, the courts take a sensitive approach. Ibrahim Kamara, from Sierra Leone, received a suspended sentence of just over one year, with an 18-month good ­behaviour order, after admitting to five counts, including grooming and having sex with a minor. The ACT Supreme Court judge said “(Kamara) has tried to make a good start on his life in Australia”.

In NSW, an Islamic sect leader was the first person in Australia to be imprisoned over the genital mutilation of two sisters aged six and seven. Notwithstanding a 21 years maximum, the leader ­received 11 months’ jail, while his two accessories will serve a minimum of 11 months’ home detention. This sets a derisory bench­mark for future sentencing….Judges have become politicians in robes and, like the police and other unelected authorities, selectively administer the law according to their prejudices.

Ironically, as much as the police and political class downplay the extent of  “African crime gangs”, “radical Islamic terrorism” or “FGM” the hardware suggests otherwise. We have “Public Order & Riot Squad” emblazoned across police cars in NSW and police officers are decked out in full para-military kit including M-4 automatic assault rifles, a superior weapon to that used by the Australian Infantry. These riot cars and machine guns didn’t exist 10 years ago. While we’re told all is well, the preventative materiel speaks volumes of the concerns within. The only problem is that the voting public is not that stupid that it doesn’t notice the hardware.

TBC also plans in the 2nd part [of the meeting] to take a stand on the streets which it claims “isn’t for the PC (politically correct) so keep that in mind. PC is not going to stop people’s houses being invaded, innocent people being attacked etc.”

Why are we surprised at such groups springing up? Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Interior (BfV) updated its factbook on the explosion in left and right wing groups and the rise of Salafists at home. To summarize:

In 2016, the BKA (Federal Criminal Police Office) registered 41,549 offences in the category of politically motivated crime, an increase of 29% over the 2014 figure.

Right wing extremist party membership has risen from 22,600 in 2015 to 23,100 in 2016.

1,600 (2015: 1,408) registered cases, the number of violent criminal offences with a right-wing extremist background increased by 13.6%. At 1,190, the number of violent crimes directed at foreigners (2015: 918) was the highest since the current definition of politically motivated crime was introduced in 2001. The number of violent crimes against actual or supposed left-wing extremists (250; 2015: 252) remained about the same. The number of violent offences against other political opponents fell significantly (34; 2015: 82).

Left wing extremist party membership has risen from 26,700 in 2015 to 28,500 in 2016.

In 2016, 5,230 criminal offences were classified as left-wing politically motivated crimes with an extremist background (2015: 5,620), of which 1,201 were violent crimes (2015: 1,608). The number of violent criminal offences with a left-wing extremist background that were directed against the police and security authorities significantly decreased to 687 (2015: 1,032) and is gradually returning to the level of 2014. The number of violent criminal offences against actual or supposed right-wing extremists also decreased to 542 (2015: 833). The number of violent crimes in the context of campaigns against restructuring more than tripled in 2016 (2015: 54, 2016: 188).

Islamic Extremists

Salafist movements in Germany have risen from 8,350 in 2015 to 9,700 in 2016 with the BfV noting on the whole, that all Islamist following in 2016 amounted to approximately 24,400 individuals, slightly down over 2015. BfV did note

Although this total number is smaller than in the previous years, the threat situation has not at all eased. On the contrary: the shift towards a violence-oriented/terrorist spectrum has revealed a new dimension of the Islamist scene, which was also illustrated by the attacks carried out in Germany in 2016However, Salafism in Germany enjoys undiminished popularity. Its continuous attractiveness shows the importance of Salafism being subject to a debate in society as a whole and of intelligence collection carried out by the community of the German domestic intelligence services. This is even more significant as adherents of the jihadist tendency of Salafism not only reject the West – symbolised by the free democratic basic order – but also actively fight against it: either by travelling to so-called jihad areas or by mounting attacks in the West.”

In the area of politically motivated crime by foreigners, 2,566 offences with an extremist background were registered (2015: 1,524), including 427 violent offences (2015: 235). The total number of criminal offences in this category thus increased by 68.4%, the number of violent crimes even by 81.7%. In 2016, there were two homicides and 13 attempted homicides by foreigners with an extremist background (2015: three).

Limp wristed rhetoric and responses (this town hall meeting in Germany is a good example) by officials is a large part of the problem for the rise of such groups. When people feel marginalized and ignored for long enough they will take matters into their own hands. It is not a question of whether groups like TBC are right or wrong in their approach to street justice but law enforcement risks having the problem blow up in their face because few in the political class are willing to tell it how it is.