We look at voter trends in the US going back to 1828 to see the pattern of voting trends as a % of total voting age population (TVAP). We also include the political party that won in that year by colour – GOP (red), Democrat (blue).
Since 1968, votes as a % of TVAP has failed to beat the 60% threshold in a presidential election year. On Trump’s victory in 2016 we declared that the one thing he was guaranteed to do is highlight the importance of voting. Will we see it on November 3rd?
If we assume that 60% is breached for TVAP an extra 13.2 million votes could be cast. 70% would equate to an extra 38.2 million votes and assuming enough people registered, the peak of 81.8% of TVAP would see a staggering 67.7 million extra votes.
To be put that in context vs 2016 when 136.67 million votes were cast, 60%, 70% and 81.8% TVAP would equate to a further 9.7%, 27.9% and 49.5% respectively.
As we write, a record 28 million ballots have been reported cast. Reporting states with party registration data: CA, CO, FL, IA, KS, KY, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, PA, SD show that:
23.5m ballots were requested by Democrats. 6 million returned.
13.2m ballots were requested by Republicans. 2.66m returned.
14.7m ballots were requested by those with no party affiliation. 2.2m returned.
Even stripping out COVID and the desire for mail-in/absentee ballots, will gross turnout simply render predictions as useless as 2016? Perhaps 10 million+ new silent voters may roar. We watch with interest.