#productionhell

Tesla – reports of only 345 deliveries of Model 3 in November

08A6D7EA-03D5-49D2-A8D6-A6F3AC11C172.jpeg

Seems that Tesla has only managed to make 345 Model 3s in November. A far cry from the promises to make 5,000 Model 3s every week by December. At the Q3 results the goal was pushed out til March 2018 at the earliest as “production hell” bites. Note that no single mainstream auto supplier is on Tesla’s deck which tells us how little faith they have in the company. Auto suppliers run on the smell of an oily rag and after so many bad experiences won’t accept dealing with auto makers who may jeopardize their own future. Recall how many auto suppliers almost went to the wall (many were in Chapter 11) after the tech bubble collapse at the turn of the century.

The other news is that Norway is ending Tesla subsidies and Germany has now disqualified Tesla Model S subsidies as the cars breach the €60,000 threshold. Finally a government that thinks it’s not advisable to give the well heeled tax breaks when it’s the battling insurance salesman Manfred from Bremen living paycheck to paycheck whose taxes to register his clapped out 1983 VW Golf diesel pay for it.

The shares have languished and even the hype of the new products and outrageous deposits has not converted into a ramp up. Q4 is likely to be a shocker at this rate. When will the faithful eventually pull the plug? Maybe Tesla should gamble the deposits on Bitcoin to see if they can lever cash flows that way?

Tesla – Aussies will remember One.Tel

1Teltesla

Before mobile telecoms provider One.Tel went bust, it had a cash flow situation like this – operating and investing cash flow negative while financing cash flow was positive. Tesla’s looks eerily similar. The problem is simple. If operating cash flows keep falling and investing cash flow keeps rising, at some stage the ability to raise cash (i.e. financing cash flow) becomes problematic. On the basis of Musk’s Q3 tele-conference Q4 cash position is likely to be worse with milestone payments and production being way behind forcing even nastier cash flow headwinds.

The problem Musk faces is that the federal tax credit is coming to an end sometime next year. Currently in California, you get $2500 kick back for buying a Tesla Model 3 on top of your $7500 from Mr Trump. So $10,000 off meaning your $35,000 Tesla only costs $25,000 (29% off). However if the tax incentive is cancelled at the federal level, the $35,000 Tesla is only $32,500 (7% off) meaning some of the 455,000 outstanding orders may wither on the vine. Remember how the virtue signalers in other parts of the world have reacted when generous EV subsidies come off. In HK, orders after the tax break was ended fell to ZERO and in Norway they plummeted 94%.

So Tesla isn’t just running a race against time to get production sorted to stop the cash bleed it faces a double whammy of its pitiful production rate causing order cancellations when people realise that The Donald may have already burnt the federal tax scheme by the time it lands on the dealer forecourt.

What buried One.Tel is that it owed suppliers so much in payments for equipment yet its cash in from customers was not growing fast enough to stop the wave of cash leaving. Tesla may indeed face the predicament of customers demanding the $1,000 deposits back. What was it Musk said about burgers (you can find out on page 6 here). Better start flipping them burgers Tesla!!

Tesla – terrible Q3

C9A694F3-416C-4A3B-B9FA-2B4010332AF6

Tesla’s Q3 2017 results came out last night and were in a word terrible with a capital T. Tesla reported an adjusted, non-GAAP loss of $2.92 per share, far worse than the expected loss of $2.27, which was more than double the $1.33 loss in Q2. The chart above tabulates the cash flow progression from the CMR report published Monday. While Tesla claimsit has $3.5bn cash in the bank it has more than $3.9bn in accounts payable liabilities! Tesla continued to burn piles of cash on the factory floor. Q3 cashburn was a record $1.4 billion ($16 million per day): much higher than the $1.2bn forecast.

Im our report we said that production issues were the one area that will catch Tesla out. In the car game, production efficiency is everything- the promises to make 5,000 Model 3s every week by December is now a goal likely pushed out til March 2018 at the earliest as “production hell” bites.

Musk blamed suppliers for having to push back the delivery schedule again, He said,

to date, our primary production constraint has been in the battery module assembly line at Gigafactory 1, where cells are packaged into modules. Four modules are packaged into an aluminum case to form a Model 3 battery pack. The combined complexity of module design and its automated manufacturing process has taken this line longer to ramp than expected. The biggest challenge is that the first two zones of a four zone process, key elements of which were done by manufacturing systems suppliers, had to be taken over and significantly redesigned by Tesla.”

The amusing thing about this quote is that Tesla is somehow telling (presumably Panasonic) how to do mass manufacturing. That is telling in itself – the rookie telling the amateur.

Also in our report we noted that no single mainstream auto supplier is on Tesla’s deck which tells us how little faith they have in the company. Auto suppliers run on the smell of an oily rag and after so many bad experiences won’t accept dealing with auto makers who may jeopardize their own future. Recall how many auto suppliers almost went to the wall (many were in Chapter 11) after the tech bubble collapse at the turn of the century.

Tesla expects capex of $1 billion in Q4 which is mainly for milestone payments on Model 3 production equipment and Gigafactory 1. So cash burn continues.

Tesla promised to redirect “our best engineering talent to fine-tune the automated processes and related robotic programming…and we are confident that throughput will increase substantially in upcoming weeks and ultimately be capable of production rates significantly greater than the original specification.” What??? Why weren’t the engineers working on that before. The whole point of mass production is to stamp out the bugs before a conveyor belt is turned in anger. Tesla, true to rookie form is doing everything back to front.

Are investors starting to see through the charade? Shares were pounded 5% after market. Although some may draw comfort from better Tesla S & X production, Model 3 looks like a nightmare of Halloween. Maybe the next capital raising can be called “trick or treat”!