#potus

MSM relishes trade of economic depression via pandemic over Trump as POTUS w/ no virus

Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) knows no bounds. Yes, the mainstream media (MSM) is celebrating the milestone that the Dow is below the level when Donald Trump was inaugurated.

We have always said that if Trump continued to boast about market gains he would have to wear it on the downside too. Alas, he is being hoisted by his own petard.

Sadly, as much as CNN and others relish the though of Trump out of office, we sincerely doubt the vast majority of Americans would trade a pandemic with catastrophic unemployment over business as usual before the WuFlu with a Trump at the helm.

Markets are forward looking. They anticipate where corporate earnings are likely to be. This market rout has little to do with Trump’s policies in isolation.

We’ve said repeatedly that global central banks have created a debt bomb through reckless monetary policies over the last two decades. They have proved just how little impact cutting rates to zero or throwing $850bn in handouts has on markets. They’re out of ammunition. Confidence is shot. We’re in uncharted territory.

Boeing is the perfect canary in the coal mine. The 737MAX debacle which is imminently due to be on sale again to a market that has effectively vanished. Airlines are cutting routes and it will be up to the zombie lending cycles of aircraft leasing companies to renegotiate rates so they can keep the patient alive. Airlines will push out deliveries.

However before Boeing’s core business troubles, the management embarked on short term incentive chasing buybacks to the tune of $43bn since 2013. The company is trading negative equity and has drawn down ALL of its credit lines ($13.8bn) and now wants a handout.

All of this is the product of two decades of mindless expediency. Governments are just as culpable for allowing greed to override common sense. No lessons have been learnt since 2000 and especially 2008. Blue chips like Boeing and GE are now heading to record lows because of it. Ford Motor is rated junk. How long before Boeing and GE fall foul of the same problem?

We are particularly interested in the next set of results from Parker Hannifin. It is like the global industrial hardware store. All of the major manufacturers use Parker for parts – pumps, hydraulics, pneumatics, valves, hoses etc. When we see Parker’s upcoming report on order flows we can gauge how bad it is at the manufacturing coal face.

This time we are staring at a “global depression” and it would be nice to think the MSM would try to put some context around the ramifications of this virus and the raft of economy killing policies governments around the world are introducing instead of just blaming Trump. Yes, he’s been his normal self during this but is he responsible for the actions of other countries going into shutdowns? Seriously? Do the US Coronavirus stats stack up poorly vs countries like Italy on a relative or absolute basis? No. Moreover COVID-19 cases in the US are a mere fraction of H1N1 swine flu cases which the media made nowhere near the level of hysteria as now. It’s a disgrace how far the media will go for clickbait.

Had the world’s central banks behaved sensibly to stop excessive debt and allowed markets to function freely, this pandemic would have had far less effect than it is now because we would have had the ammunition to fight this war of attrition. Now all our governments and regulators are doing is moving phantom armies across maps trying to stop economic Armageddon.

Trump trounces the party of raw onion, lemon and chilli mouthwash in SOTU

Trump smashed the State Of The Union speech. Utterly exposed the Trump Derangement Syndrome within the Democrat’s ranks.

Trump has a glass jaw. This is well known. He made his feelings well known to Speaker Nancy Pelosi in his 2020 SOTU address. He snubbed her handshake and set the tone. It was juvenile and unpresidential to refuse Pelosi’s gesture but Trump wanted the optics. She was shocked. Then again their mutual hate is no surprise to anyone, especially given the impeachment farce.

Before he spoke, Trump was greeted by chants of “4 more years!

The sound of Pelosi’s applause was quieter than a one-handed clap.

Pelosi or the Democrats couldn’t raise one round of applause for record unemployment for blacks, Hispanics, veterans or disabled people. So much for identity politics, they bleat incessantly about.

Trump awarded stage 4 lung cancer sufferer Rush Limbaugh with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Not even Pelosi could extend any warmth for his achievements, let alone his ailment.

You have to hand it to Trump for rallying American greatness. As a media man, he knew exactly how to win the crowd with his special guests.

He spoke of an 8th grader who wants to join the newly created Space Force. His great-grandfather is the 100yo Tuskegee Airman, Brigadier General Charles McGee. Americans love their war heroes. It was a powerful moment.

Even awarding a child of a single mother of colour, Stephanie and Janiyah Davis, with an education freedom scholarship couldn’t bring Democrats to applaud them.

He also spoke of his repudiation of illegal aliens and sanctuary cities. He spoke of Rocky Jones who was shot 8 times and killed at a gas station. He was murdered by an illegal immigrant who was released by a sanctuary city. Trump said he wants to pass legislation to allow victims to sue sanctuary cities for suffering such losses. He also stamped his disgust of giving free healthcare to illegal aliens.

He spoke of drug price transparency and introducing record numbers of generic drugs to lower the cost of medicines. Healthcare is far from perfect but steps are being made.

One of the most powerful moments was the surprise visit of Sgt Williams who was reunited with his family after a long deployment. Chants of “USA” as they embraced was one to pull at the heartstrings of a nation that is proud of its military. Probably the most exceptional moment of the SOTU speech.

Whatever bluster or fact-checking that will inevitably surface in the hateful mainstream media, much of his achievements will ultimately be weighed by the electorate come November.

During all of this, the fact was most Democrats swished a mix of raw onion, lemon and chilli mouthwash. Too bitter to accept the realities of a president that has kept a lot of promises. Staring down at their smartphones as he rattled off KPIs on the economy and the number of companies who are setting up in America. The mainstream media will talk of the handshake snub but the SOTU will be what is remembered by Americans for making them feel proud again.

On the back of the Iowa Caucus farce and his inevitable acquittal from impeachment this week, his coronation looks ever more certain after tonight.

Nancy Pelosi couldn’t wait for it to be over. She ripped his speech up in front of the audience, a terrible look especially given her bitterness. It is hilarious to think on so many issues the Democrats couldn’t celebrate successes of their own citizens.

Trump 1 Democrats 0.

NB – he didn’t mention Iowa or impeachment once.

Michelle Obama wins Most Admired Woman award. Donald Trump Most Admired Man alongside her husband

How worthy can any poll honestly be to rank Hillary Clinton the “Most Admired Woman” 17 years in a row? Michelle Obama has now won the Gallup award back to back in 2019, although she slid from 15% to 10%. Lucky that Michelle and Barack Obama have moved into a $15m mansion by the shores of Martha’s Vineyard because they might need the extra space to store all of the trophies.

While it will no doubt appease the left to have her win, they may not be too pleased to discover that Donald Trump tied with Barack Obama for “most admired man.”

Ouch! How telling is that to have a poll like Gallup that can rank crooked Hillary for 17 years straight now award Trump equal first in a country which suffers from so much Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS)? Even Melania Trump, the figure so many magazines refuse to put on their cover, took second place.

Maybe Americans love the current first couple more than the media makes out.

Kavanaugh 2.0? Do texts tell anything?

CM will say this from the outset. If Trump is actually guilty of a crime that validates formal impeachment, then the law of the land must prevail, regardless of partisan bias.

Unfortunately, this impeachment process smacks of Kavanaugh 2.0. Don’t be surprised if more allegations come out of the woodwork. After Kavanaugh’s eventual confirmation, recall that many who came forward in the hearings suffered bouts of amnesia or flat out reversed the initial allegations made. The Democrats remain so deranged, that if not careful, this could create an ill wind that will blow back on them if not successful.

Luckily for the Democrats, having a compliant mainstream media which can think of nothing better than aiding and abetting an impeachment are salivating so as to recover self-inflicted slumping ratings. So much for objective journalism. How cute that they pass so little airtime over allegations that US politicians could have family members embroiled in corrupt activities while they were in office. Don’t Americans see that as worth knowing? Isn’t it odd that Hunter Biden, a man with no experience in a particular field, was given a $600k job to act as a director, 10x the average CEO salary in the country?

How they missed the allegation that the first whistleblower, failed to disclose his meeting with House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff to the Inspector General Michael Atkinson. Atkinson didn’t follow up because he had no knowledge until it came out. Never mind that according to 18 U.S. Code § 1001, anyone who “falsifies, conceals, or covers up by any trick, scheme, or device a material fact” might be guilty of making a false statement. A felony?

Now that whistleblower #1’s credibility is looking even shakier (given his testimony was based on second-hand information), how surprising that whistleblower #2 has come out of the woodpile with supposedly first-hand information. He claims to have evidence supporting the first. What a surprise?

Will he/she also be found to be a registered Democrat? Will he have the same impartiality of FBI agent Peter “at no time in any of these texts did those personal beliefs ever enter into the realm of any action I took” Strzok when the lead investigator of Hillary Clinton’s email saga and Trump’s alleged Russia collusion?

Now the media wolf pack is seizing on comments that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made supposedly about quid pro quo. He said,  “This is what we do. Nations work together and they say ‘Boy...if you can help me with X, we’ll help you achieve Y. This is what partnerships do. It’s win-win, it’s better for each of us.” If one looked at nearly every administration, countries look for mutual benefits. What is remotely odd about that? Does America give aid to countries that benefit it? Israel perhaps? If you help keep peace in the region, we’ll sell you state of the art equipment? Saudi Arabia? If you buy our fighter jets, we’ll buy your oil?

Zelenskiy said there was no quid pro quo. Australian PM Scott Morrison spoke of exactly the type of cooperation Australia and the US has had for decades. It isn’t a quid pro quo. It is mutual benefit. Sharing common values.

Officials taking part in the texts are Kurt Volker, former U.S. special envoy to Ukraine; William Taylor, who was interim chargé d’affaires in Kiev is the top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine; Gordon Sondland, U.S. ambassador to the European Union; and Andrey Yermak, a top aide to Zelenskiy.

In an exchange dated Sept. 9, in a text Taylor sent to Sondland, the career diplomat wrote: “I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign.”

Sondland responds: “Bill, I believe you are incorrect about President Trump’s intentions. The President has been crystal clear no quid pro quo’s of any kind.

In a July 25 message between Volker and Yermak — the aide to Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy — which occurred just ahead of the Trump-Zelenskiy call, Volker wrote:

Heard from White House—assuming President Z convinces trump he will investigate/’get to the bottom of what happened’ in 2016, we will nail down date for visit to Washington.

Weeks later, on Aug. 9, Sondland and Volker exchange texts as they try to establish a date for Zelenskiy’s visit:

Sondland: “Morrison ready to get dates as soon as Yermak confirms.”

Volker: “Excellent!! How did you sway him? 🙂

Sondland: “Not sure I did. I think POTUS really wants the deliverable

So the texts go to show there was no quid pro quo which involved “monies being withheld”, which is the real point of attack by Schiff et al.

Does Trump wanting to get to the bottom of the very collusion during the 2016 election that the Democrats had been screaming about for the better part of two years all of a sudden require impeachment because that it doesn’t suit their purposes? Do they want a president to wield a big stick or be a wallflower? 

Washington Post gave 4 out of 5 Pinocchio’s to Adam Schiff. How hard must have that been? Pelosi removed Jerry Nadler from the investigation. Surely she must think to remove him given the incompetence he has shown? Now Schiff has made himself part of the investigation. He is now a witness. A bit hard to chair an impeachment enquiry when he himself is part of it.

What a farce.

All class

All class. Imagine if someone wrote a poem about Michelle Obama performing fellatio on her husband. The Left would lose their mind for weeks falling for a doxxing, sacking and every other attack to take that individual out.

Dictator with term limits

While no one can doubt that Trump polarizes opinion, do his detractors honestly think they will win the debate by mowing a giant phallus into a lawn? Will this attempt to (literally) take the moral low ground somehow swing those who hold different opinions?

If the dictator moniker were true he would be the world’s most incompetent executor of such an office. Sadly Trump has between 1.5 and 5.5 years (likely the latter) to remain as DOTUS. Instead of 99% of the population voting for him like a Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un or Hitler, Trump will likely garner around half. If Americans truly wanted a real dictator they would be better off voting for someone who could get 99%. Sadly democracies don’t operate like that.

The Queen, who long remembers the 80 year relationship which preserved her monarchy, knows that after Trump leaves office, the UK will still continue to have a strong bond with America. Her Majesty won’t resort to petty snubs of its head of state because she feels the need to kowtow to the intolerant mindsets of a few.

Will Americans want to see politicians like Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry show such conditional support for American democracy? Did she call for protests when the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia visited? A man with pretty questionable actions regarding journalists in embassies. No she did not.

There are far more effective ways to show courtesy to visiting dignitaries. As CM mentioned yesterday, Trump’s tweets are unstatesmanlike. It doesn’t make Thornberry or Khan’s any better.

Perhaps the Queen is sending the world a message about “the long game.” She probably knows a thing or two about diplomacy as the world’s longest serving monarch. Her state dinner invitation list is the perfect representation of who she feels needs prioritization. What an embarrassment that the UK government did not extend the invite in the first place.

God save our Queen!

Poor old Joe Biden

Joe Biden maybe the front runner for the Democrats in 2020 but the internet trolls are having a wow of a time. Note his creepy t-shirts are being sold under www.joebiden.info and the web address of joebiden.org leads straight to the White House website listing President Trump’s accomplishments. It seems now that election campaigning requires more than just placards and postbox drops. Ouch.

Fauxahontas is polling 3rd in Massachusetts

Democratic 2020 presidential nomination hopeful Elizabeth Warren is polling 3rd in her home state of Massachusetts. So much for her attempts to run.

Perhaps being 1/1024th Native American and writing same on a Texas bar registration card might have something to do with it.

Trump looks more certain by the day to win 2020 if the Dems continue to show no strategy or policy other than to hate POTUS. Biden is toast, Warren doubtful and Harris looks flakey post Smollett.

Surely Hollywood celebrity Alec Baldwin’s pledge to win in 2020 only shows how hopeless their cause is. If Hollywood doubts the current crop, what hope have the Dems got in 2020? Wheel Hillary our again? Things are so bad even Obama is calling on party faithful to stop the circular firing squad. And they call Trump stupid!?

Elizabeth Warren’s New Year’s message


Elizabeth Warren may have announced she is running for President of the United States in 2020 but this New Year’s video is utterly cringeworthy. Apart from the fact she cracks open a beer to pretend to be down to earth she only managed to garner 15 live viewers with her stream. Way to go for the election campaign. Where were her in house media managers? This video is such cannon fodder for her opponents, both Democrat and Republican alike. Embarrassing. At the very least she should have channeled former Australian PM RJL Hawke on how to consume beer for an audience.

Does the data show Donald in the dumpster?

Midterm

This is a simple schematic of first term presidents and the results at the ballot box of their first mid term. Since 1910, the incumbent parties have invariably lost ground. More interestingly, Democrats had control of either/both House of Reps and Senate during Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Bush Sr – all Republicans. Republican Presidents Taft, Harding, Hoover, Eisenhower and Trump lost the House at the midterms. Truman, Clinton and Obama suffered the same fate for the Democrats.

Trump achieved the highest number of Senate seats taken by a first term Republican president for over 100 years. George W Bush achieved rising numbers for HoR/Senate  post 9/11 but only Democrats have achieved the feat – Woodrow Wilson, FDR and JFK. Perhaps the irrelevance of the outcomes in the mid-terms is that despite the floggings Wilson, Truman, Ike, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama all were comfortably reelected for a second term.

Given the headwinds Trump was facing from the mainstream media, his unorthodox outbursts, twitter tirades and so forth, the electorate didn’t grant the Democrats a huge gift  they were expecting. Even worse they gave Trump a bigger authority to appoint SC justices should an opportunity arise by bumping his numbers in the Senate. Not surprising given the shocking gutter level political theatre over Justice Kavanaugh, vindicated by  victims confessing they had lied.

The Democrats should still be concerned that the $70mn spent on Beto O’Rourke came to nothing.  Beyonce also endorsed Beto. Oprah endorsed Abrams in Georgia – who is likely to lose. Taylor Swift endorsed Bredesen – who also lost. All four candidates openly supported by Obama lost. So much for celebrity power swaying electorates. It probably had a counter effect.

Even worse, in Nevada a brothel owner and reality TV star won his race despite dying last month. It is hard to work out what is the bigger tragedy. Voting for someone dead or being the competing Democrat to lose to a dead person. A Republican is to be appointed to the seat by county officials.

We shouldn’t forget that the Republicans had the highest number of sitting member retirements at a first midterm in the House of Representatives for 88 years. 25 seats had a new face. Republicans won re-election as governors in New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland – three of them deep blue states. Where was the mainstream media on that?

Midterm VT.png

Turnout was good (for a mid term). 48.1% voted in 2018. In the last 100 years the average has been 41%. Only in 1966, did the first midterm of LBJ exceed this level at 48.7%. So much for either party causing a red or blue wave. Less than half of eligible voters showed up on November 6th 2018. More cared, but not enough.

Felons make for an interesting outlier subset. While it is hard to know their exact voting intentions, for the Gubernatorial in Georgia, would 219,431 felons have made a difference for Abrams? She trails Kemp by just under 100,000 votes. So if 55% of felons (the Georgia midterm turnout ratio) voted, 120,687 votes were up for grabs. Were it legal for Georgian state felons to vote, she would have been wise to campaign there.

Felons

Now that the Democrats have the lower house, one wonders why they have put Nancy Pelosi in charge of the House? This is possibly to be contested. Up to fifty Democrat congressmen might oppose her for Speaker. Trump couldn’t wish for a better adversary as her litany of gaffes will undoubtedly embarrass her party. Pelosi represents pretty much everything Americans have come to despise about the Democrats.

More worryingly, Maxine Waters is being put in charge of the Financial Services Committee. At a point in the cycle where financial acumen is probably most required, this is an embarrassment, made worse by her open calls for payback.

The Democrats need fresh faces. Ones that will look for bipartisan support. If the Democrats embark upon a cocktail of revenge politics and look to push for investigation after investigation in order to impeach Trump but end up with nothing they will be seen for what they are – a party completely self-absorbed with petty vendettas. The toxic Senate debacle should have given them warning enough that voters won’t tolerate more political roadkill like that going forward.  Yet Pelosi will likely use her subpoena powers to drag everything through the gutter instead of working to improve things for Americans. Failure here will only lead the electorate to conclude they wasted two years and gift wrap 2020 for Trump.

This mid-term election was anything but a slam dunk. Put aside personal hatred of Trump, look at the data and see that Americans did not write him off as many pundits predicted. It should be more scary to realise that he is probably more Teflon-Don than he was in 2016. Second biggest mid-term turnout in history, highest net gain of seats in the Senate in 100 years for a first term GOP president, record dollars thrown at Democrat candidates backed by Trump-hating billionaires. At the end of the day folks, this is just the data talking.

Mid Term Turnout.png