#pandg

How to clean up in the adult diaper boom

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Zerohedge is reporting on the large market scope for adult diapers.  One-fifth of the world’s population will be of retirement age by 2070. The beauty for the diaper manufacturers is that adult diapers have 4x the margins of infant diapers despite exactly the same ingredients and production techniques. Asia is ageing fast, especially China and Japan. Incontinence affects 40% of people over 65yo so the market dynamics have rock solid foundations, even if wearers don’t.

Unicharm and P&G are two monsters in the diaper game. But who makes the equipment that makes them?

In a former life as an equity analyst, CM covered a business called Zuiko Corp (6279 JP) which made the machines that make the diapers. It is a captive business. All machines are built to spec. 50 metres long and weighing 20 tonnes. 850 diapers per minute.

The company has the largest share of the market in Asia. It used to be around 80% when CM covered the company and supply chains are very sticky. Zuiko is owned c.10% by Unicharm in Japan.

Zuiko has had quite patchy performance, despite the wonderful structural backdrop. Private equity must look to a buyout. The company has pretty poor investor relations and shareholder communications. The shares are in the dumps, at 7-year lows. It is quite hard to find a business that has such favourable, defensive growth characteristics which is in need of proper leadership.

Zuiko has effectively no debt, ¥10bn  (c. US$90million) in cash which represents around 48% of its market cap. Looks like one for the SMSF.

Job opening: Activism & Impact Manager

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This is actually a job. Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream is hiring an ‘Activism and Impact Manager‘. Lucky for them, its parent Unilever is also a woke corporation. The job spec is simple:

“Do you have at least three years’ experience working in campaigning within the NGO, charity or grassroots movement-building space? Have you got a passion for the idea that business can be used to drive positive change in the world? Do issues of social and environmental justice drive you to take action and are you able to persuade others to join you?

Values-led ice cream company Ben & Jerry’s is recruiting an Activism and Impact Manager to lead social and environmental justice campaigns in Australia and New Zealand with our team in Sydney. ”

CM guesses that milk shaking conservatives is a new thing of the left so there are some definite synergies to be had by “Ben & Jerrying” them. Hopefully, the Chief “Woke” Officer (CWO) can offset any losses to Unilever’s bottom line by encouraging activists to only use social and environmental just milk-based products from Ben & Jerry’s to ensure that the lost business from one side is made up through willful waste on the other.

When will businesses learn that telling their customers how to behave is not required? Yet another business to swipe from the list – Nike, Gillette, Ben & Jerry’s, Colgate, Starbucks…

Gillette targets toxic men at 50% off

The power of virtue signaling. Gillette half price. Schick full price. Get woke, go broke. Neutral Bay Woolworths channel check.

Gillette value cut by P&G

CM was at Woolworths this morning and noted Gillette products still deeply discounted. Schick products still at the standard price. Of note it is interesting to see that parent P&G, in its 3Q 2019 earnings release overnight, wrote:

“The most significant assumptions utilized in the determination of the estimated fair values of Shave Care reporting unit and the Gillette indefinite-lived intangible asset are the net sales and earnings growth rates (including residual growth rates) and discount rate. The residual growth rate represents the expected rate at which the reporting unit and Gillette brand are expected to grow beyond the shorter-term business planning period. The residual growth rate utilized in our fair value estimates is consistent with the reporting unit and brand operating plans, and approximates expected long term category market growth rates. The residual growth rate is dependent on overall market growth rates, the competitive environment, inflation, relative currency exchange rates and business activities that impact market share.“

Is the last sentence related to ridiculous campaigns that attacked toxic masculinity? Did the YouGov poll conducted afterwards set off warning lights inside P&G headquarters? Before the campaign Gillette was ranked 7th out of 42 personal care brands. After it aired, it ranked dead last.

P&G went on to say, “While management can and has implemented strategies to address these events, changes in operating plans or adverse changes in the future could reduce the underlying cash flows used to estimate fair values and could result in a decline in fair value that would trigger future impairment charges of the reporting unit’s goodwill and indefinite-lived intangibles.“

In either a positive or negative 25bp change scenario in the discount rate, an impairment cut of 6% has been factored.

A look under P&G’s “Grooming” division in these results and it becomes clear that revenues have plunged 8.1% and operating profits slashed 22%. For the 9 month period, it is 6.1% and 12.7% respectively. So it can be deduced that the Gillette toxic masculinity campaign has accelerated the demise. Only proves that customers don’t want politics attached to their products.

Noone needs ‘woke’ corporations. Why do corporations feel the need to become paragons of virtue? Just stick to the products and leave us to decide for ourselves on societal values. In Gillette’s case, attempts to correct customer behaviour have been a resounding failure. Oh, to imagine the excuse making inside the marketing department.

Get consent from your infants you thoughtless parents

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It shouldn’t surprise us with the left’s lunatic thinking that a child knows that it is responsible for soiling it’s own diaper. Of course only our national broadcaster, the ABC, would host such people on their programmes. Is it any wonder the ABC has had a budget freeze for the next three years. It should be heavily slashed given it wastes tax payers money on such inane stupidity. No wonder it’s viewership continues to decline.

“We work with parents from birth… just about how to set up a culture of  consent in their home so, “I’m going to change your nappy now. Is that okay?” Of course the baby’s not going to respond, “Yes mum, that’s awesome. I’d love to have my nappy changed.” But if you leave a space and wait for body language and wait to make eye contact, then you’re letting that child know that they’re responsible…”

You can find the ABC’s budget malaise here.