If the EU had a mandate to force the British people toward a No Deal Brexit it couldn’t have done a better job if it had tried. The sheer arrogance and meddling from Brussels have only steeled the resolve of many UK citizens. Did it think for a moment these jabs, threats and ultimatums would enamour those residing in the world’s 5th largest economy? All they have done is given the lion cause to roar.
Britons have not been asleep at the wheel but the political classes on both sides of the English Channel have acted as though they have. A further delay to a resolution and a block of No Deal only compound the anger.
This is way more than a Brexit vote – any general election will be about the party who is prepared to execute on democracy.
Those that have done their utmost to thwart the referendum will have a target painted on their back when an election eventually arrives. The Brits don’t want to comprise and they have not forgotten the betrayal. They want out of the common market as David Cameron assured them ahead of the referendum! Brexit is Brexit.
While some might dismiss BoJo as some eccentric Etonian clown, the UK PM has torn the scab off British politics with the proroguing of parliament. For 3 years, the UK Parliament under the weak leadership of Theresa May dithered and floundered in carrying out its duty.
There is a slice of irony to see Remainers march in the streets to protest the proroguing of parliament. They claim it is undemocratic when it was indeed they who did their utmost to block the will of the people. If we were to truly get to the bottom of the pet gripes of most Remainers, it would likely amount to having to form a line in the non-EU queue at customs of remaining members over any fear of major economic impacts.
Boris Johnson has played chicken with his own party members – who are Remainers – that they’ll be turfed from the party if they don’t back his plans. The flip side is that they will be crucified at the next election anyway. To side with Corbyn is suicide. To side with a Theresa May rehashed deal is a recipe for Torycide. An alliance with Farage is his only hope to end this mess, eventually.
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage knows that the Tory & Brexit parties cannot split their votes as evidenced in the Peterborough by-election. With no proportional representation voting, we shouldn’t be surprised if Brexit party candidates are put up in every weak Tory constituency and where Tory Remainer incumbents currently sit. For that, Farage can negotiate a No Deal, let BoJo keep the top job and eventually convert his Brexit Party members to become a new look Tory party. Let’s face facts. The Brexit Party is predominantly about leaving the EU. If the job is done, what better way to inject much needed new blood into the Tories than get real Britons from all walks of life in parliament.
All the predictions made by Project Fear have failed to eventuate. No crashing economy or financial markets, no surge in unemployment and no British businesses gnashing teeth at what might come with life outside the EU. If anything the recent G7 looked very promising when reflecting on all of the FTAs which will probably be agreed on.
The latest trade stats between the EU and Britain make this argument pretty simple. EU members make up 7 of the Top 10 British export markets accounting for 37.4% of all trade. Top 10 account for 65.9% of trade. America accounts for £54.9bn while Germany is £36.5bn. Will British businesses fret at exporting more to America?
On the Import side, the UK matters much more to the likes of Germany at £68bn. The Dutch at £42bn and France at £28bn.
In short of the UK ‘s Top 10 importing nations, 8 are EU members. The Top 10 account for 65.7% of the total. Those 8 EU nations make up 48.1% of the total imports into the UK. On what earth would these Europeans seek to cut off their noses to spite their face? 7.13% of Germany‘s exports end up in Blighty.
One might argue that 10% of all UK exports end up in Germany Germany is the UK’s #1 importer and Germany is the #2 destination for British exports. For Germany, the UK ranks #11 importer and #3 export nation. Angela Merkel is not going to throw away a 1% GDP equivalent trade surplus in an economy in retreat. Not going to happen.
The behaviour of the EU has been so predictable. Recall Theresa May’s initial plan took the EU cabal 45 minutes to approve. That ought to have told everyone what a total dud for the UK it would be. How could we forget Emmanuel Macron imposing an October 31 deadline to have BoJo prorogue parliament and have the little Frenchman pull back his Napoleonic bravado seeing that the threat meant the EU had to throw more spanners in the works.
The British aren’t stupid. They didn’t get duped in 2016 by Brexit buses carrying slogans. 17.4mn wanted out. The taunts that people like Trump and Putin were Leavers and Obama and Trudeau were Remainers had the opposite of intended effect. The left tried to use the same tactics in the recent state elections in Germany. They used the idea of Nazism to shame people not to vote for the AfD in the Saxony election. Unfortunately, even malleable 18-29yo voters put the nationalist party top. If a second referendum were held, Leave would win by an even bigger margin.
If Jeremy Corbyn ever wanted to prosecute a case for No Deal he only had to do the obvious – make reference to Trump. True to form, he did. Does he honestly believe that signing a free trade agreement with the US would be a bad thing? Would British consumers and industry truly shun 25% of the global economy which would lower the cost of goods and services?
Corbyn promised to leave the EU at the last election but has since openly become a turncoat and proclaimed he will do his utmost to prosecute remain. At least he has finally become honest.
Let us not forget the facts of the referendum:
Leave vs Remain
Votes – 17.4m vs 16.1m
Constituencies – 406 vs 242
Labour Constituencies – 148 vs 84 (Does Corbyn honestly believe they’ve flipped back?)
Tory Constituencies – 247 vs 80 (Does BoJo really fear the remainers in the ranks?)
Regions – 9 vs 3
MPs – 160 vs 486
When The Guardian and the BBC are in full flight with attacks on BoJo we should take much comfort that their greatest fears will eventually be realised. The media hysteria on the risks of a general election. Australia’s own ABC has written that could Boris Johnson be the UK’s shortest-serving PM?
Theresa May called a snap election when she didn’t need to. She lost her outright majority because she overlooked the fact that the electorate was sick and tired of voting. It was stupid to do so. She was punished for it.
This time, Boris Johnson knows that the electorate is screaming to boot out those that have betrayed the people. Farage smashed the EU elections after only 6 weeks after forming the Brexit Party. His popularity is better than the Tories. Boris can’t be blind to this. Neither are the remainers in his party who are fighting tooth and nail to prevent it.
Yet can he the media stir up enough fake polls to get the 2/3rds majority to call an early election?
Prolonging this outcome only means the peons are busy sharpening their pitchforks so best work to side with the angry mob.