#millennials

Reward Minerals – worth 14x current market cap?

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Reward Minerals (ASX: RWD) believes the NPV of its upcoming deposit is worth 14x the current market price of $22m.  Once RWD’s Lake Disappointment (LD) Sulphate of Potash (SOP) deposit passes all the expected environmental regulations by March 2020 on a post-tax basis, the NPV at an 8% discount rate is $293mn, based on an IRR of 15%. How many best-in-class lowest cost SOP deposits with 100-yr+ lifespans trade with such a minuscule capitalization against the prospect of sharp growth in plant-based foods requiring the very input to produce?

While all Potash fertilizers contain Potassium the two most common forms are Muriate of Potash (MOP) and SOP,

SOP is a premium potash fertilizer free of chloride (unlike MOP) which is harmful to plants). SOP is used primarily on high-value crops, usually leafy plants, such as fruits and vegetables. MOP is commonly used on carbohydrate type crops such as wheat. SOP may be applied to carbohydrate crops however the use of MOP on leafy plants will typically burn and harm them while also affecting the taste.

Reward Minerals have 100% ownership rights of the LD SOP deposit which will have lowest quartile production costs thanks to being derived from brine, not the expensive Mannheim method. LD is situated in the driest place in Australia which means it has the highest evaporation rates, perfect for brine-based SOP collection.

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Lowest cost producer of SOP

Only 29% of global SOP is created from brine. Around 50% of SOP is produced via the Mannheim process, an energy-intensive conversion process whereby MOP is combined with sulfuric acid to create SOP and a hydraulic acid by-product. Not only is the process highly capital intensive, but it is also predicated on the availability of markets to sell both of the resulting products.

It is this supply of SOP which creates a price floor for the commodity well above the marginal production costs for any primary deposits.

LD’s expected cash cost of A$335/t selling into a US$500/t wholesale market, RWD expects to have an EBITDA return of around $118m p.a. This will make it one of the lowest-cost producers globally thanks to the natural conversion process afforded with brine deposits.

SOP output expectations

The deposit is expected to get the EPA green light in early 2020. RWD is targeting 407,500tpa production in a global market of 6mtpa. This will be the world’s second-largest brine SOP deposit by output. The deposit has 153Mt of resource at its disposal.

Initial capital costs to extract the mineral are expected to be $405mn all in.

EPA

Unaffected by instability in MOP

The premium between SOP over MOP has widened in recent times due to instability in the MOP market through the split of Uralkali, a major Potash producer, from the Belarusian Potash Company. Throughout this period the price of SOP has remained stable.

The SOP price is underpinned by the rarity of sizeable primary deposits and the high cost of the Mannheim production process through which approximately 50% of SOP is created. There are no viable substitutes and demand continues to steadily increase, unaffected by the instability in the MOP market.

Put simply, SOP is a value business. MOP is a volume business.

Teaming up with Twiggy

On November 12, RWD announced a $2mn JV with Fortescue Metals (FMG) a Farm-in and Joint Venture Agreement. Reward’s rights in relation to the Lake Disappointment SOP Project’s infrastructure requirements are protected under the agreement.

7 Billion reasons & environmentally conscious millennials

With a 7 billion population to feed, the SOP market will continue to be firmly supported. It will be helped by a push towards more plant-based diets, SOP’s lower salinity will be superior to MOP which reduces yields in the same crop field over time. Plant-based protein could represent one-third of overall protein by 2054, according to Lux Research.

CM holds RWD stock in his SMSF and own account.

The sheer stupidity of the self-entitled generation

Incredible that these Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers think it appropriate to fly the Trump balloon during D-Day commemorations. This millennial numbskull must have no clue of history if she can draw an equivalence of defeating concocted fascism in 2019 vs the 50,000,000 that died as a result of trying to prevent it.

The left is so unhinged. These activists might profess to know more than WWII veterans about facism as it is staring at them in the mirror every morning but what disrespect to suggest their clueless self entitled lives, afforded by the very sacrifices of these brave veterans, could understand what they endured. CM wrote about ‘Staring at the dictator‘ last year.

So much for leading by example.

Perhaps reading some letters from CM’s grandfather who articulated the realities of war from the frontline.

TOBRUK – 1941

We were wakened by the drone of Italian bombers which have a distinctive note and easily recognizable at night…we heard 1/2 dozen explosions & wondered what they would be bombing…about 30 minutes later we got a message to go immediately to the prisoner of war compound as they had been bombed…

…it was a most ghastly sight imaginable. The prisoners without blankets were huddled together for warmth and had lit fires and their own planes had dropped big 500lb bombs…

…there were bits of bodies everywhere, like a slaughterhouse – brains, livers, arms, trunks. I couldn’t describe it. The bombs landed right into the huddled mass of prisoners & blown them to pieces. The doctors and the boys worked like Trojans doing amputations in the field. Arms and legs were put in a stack like a wood heap and to make it worse some desert dogs were having a feast on the remains. On of our blokes was doing an Italian, who had his arm just hanging by a bit of tissue, hacked the arm off with a jack knife. When he returned a bloody dog had the arm in his mouth. And was streaking over the hill when an MP shot it with his revolver. We worked all that day and through the night & done around 300 operations on the spot. Near one bomb crater we shoveled bits and pieces in the hole and covered it in…it is not so much the shrapnel but the concussion that does the damage”

CRETE -1941

”we were in an olive grove with wounded men under every tree before we got word to get going and they gave us hell here, the guns tipped toward the men under the trees and straked is with machine guns. I nearly took a soilly here. I heard a plane roaring down & looking up saw a Messerschmitt 109 diving straight for me. You should have seen me move. I dived for the nearest tree and just got there before he opened up with his machine guns (6 of them, 3 in each wing).  The chatter of them was deafening as he flew as low as 100ft from me, the b———-d…any man on Crete who never prayed was a bloody liar…

…anyway I had the job of getting 300 walking wounded to the beach which was 45 miles away (they told us 7)…what a march keeping our movement secret & taking cover by day and moving only at night…the hours of daylight would drive you crazy…a road was being done over by Junkers 87s and heard Jerries trench mortars landing very close so I said to Kev & Bill “let’s go” daylight or not I was moving. Bill told me he’d had enough and couldn’t stand it any longer then I noticed for the first time he was bomb happy (shell shock) his head was  nodding nineteen to the dozen, eyes staring and hands shaking…

…water was scarce. My mouth like blotting paper and we were in rotten condition until we came across a bombed truck so we drank the radiator water (rust, oil and all). It was like nectar…I never thought hunger was so crook…I couldn’t keep my mind off food, even dreamt of it and of the crusts I’d wasted (Kev admitted the same)

NEW GUINEA – 1942

Meanwhile Private Jenkins was sent through by jeep to act as a guide…however about 50yds from the corner; a sustained burst of MG fire whistled around us which was tragically funny as I looked behind to see the boys moving up the track. After the burst I dived for cover in the tall Kumai grass and when I looked back there wasn’t a man to be seen because when I dived they all dived too. We stayed about 1/4 hour and I decided I couldn’t stay all day so I decided to risk it and make a dash for it…a man every two minutes…without mock heroics my knees were knocking as I got to my feet and darted 200 yards long and expected to get one in the guts at any moment…

…to my sorrow around the corner we came across poor George Jenkins who had been the guide- shot-our first casualty and we’d only been in the place 5 minutes and a sniper had got him. The bullet had plowed through his scalp from ear to eye and his face was a mess. Poor bugger. All he was worrying about was that he wasn’t able to tell us about the snipers and was we alright? I slipped a shell dressing on his skull and carried him back – lucky bugger he’ll go home now…

…this bloody war is a terrible mental strain. You can get shot anywhere with snipers (who never live more than two hours anyway after they’ve climbed the trees) because our boys comb the branches with Brens and they dangle like rabbits from their perch). I’ve lost about 2 stone since I’ve been in action here. It’s tough believe me….

….as we were coming back (it was dark) I am in front treading safely- a stick cracks and we prop, listen and sneak on. When I tripped over a wire stretched across the path I went cold with terror – a booby trap…I flopped to Mother Earth waiting for the explosion – which never materialized. Quickly as possible we moved on fearing a delayed action grenade…the trouble with the front line is that it is so fluid that they are everywhere…

Another letter from New Guinea

Are we giving the Japanese fighting boys a belting!!…yesterday when our 25 pounders started up behind us was it accurate? I’ll say. The Japanese scattered in all directions squealing like girls were blown to shred..they hate our mortars. You can hear them quite plainly in the bush screaming and squealing like animals when our mortars lob on them and as they bunch together like sheep and don’t disperse it’s like shooting clay pigeons…

...I’m not exaggerating when I tell you the fighting is going on at a 20 yard range yet you can’t see them and they can’t see us. A patrol will he on the track and meet a patrol of Japanese suddenly 5 yards away. It’s a case of whose quicker on the draw. Our boys have really got Nippon beat at this game they seem dull witted and before they wake up, our blokes have generally riddled them…

…I’m applying for a recommendation for decoration for two of my blokes – Nicol and Lennar to the OC as they’ve done a marvelous job. Hope they click although honestly every man in the show deserves one

Lest we forget.

Millennials & Socialism

Politics, Historical figures, CIS, Graph, education, millenials, familiarity with dictators.

How well do millennials know their tyrants? A CIS study in Australia showed that 58% of millennials had a favourable view of socialism. Unfortunately 51% did not know who Chairman Mao was. Another 32% did not know Stalin and 42% hadn’t heard of Lenin. If we combine with “know but not familiar” with “don’t know” we see almost 80%, 66% and 74% respectively. Oh how wonderful to learn in school about three men whose social policies led to the deaths of 10s of millions.

If their teachers won’t tell them, perhaps experience will need to give the test first and the lesson afterwards. There is a touch of irony that university degree holding millennials have the highest respect for socialism.

More love for Naomi Osaka

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20yo Naomi Osaka deserves every success she gets. She is without doubt the hottest marketing prospect globally. There is no media spin or polish with her on any level. She is authentic in the extreme. No prima donna antics or bragging. If anything her press conferences since returning have defined her as ‘what you see is what you get.’ Humility and grace. Pray we get more millennials like her. She shows one doesn’t have to beat their chest in ridiculous ways to get attention.

No wonder Adidas want to throw $11.9m per year to sponsor her. As a Nissan ambassador, despite her media appearance in front of the Leaf electric vehicle, when asked Naomi just let her inner petrol head scream her favorite car – the GT-R. Lucky for her she will get one in white.

The world of tennis couldn’t have a better ambassador for the game. Let’s hope that the media don’t pry too deeply into her private life (good luck with that) and her sports manager doesn’t put her on a multi-year roadshow from hell to please sponsors which would put any star to the test.

The financial health of Millennials

Changing Balance Sheet across Generations

The St Louis Fed has published a report on Millennial balance sheets, comparing them to Gen Xers. The average value of total assets was lower among millennials than Gen Xers. Millennials held an average of $162,000 of assets relative to Gen X’s average of $198,000. The report also found that Millennials held a slightly higher level of total debt, at an average of $72,000 compared to Gen X’s average of $67,000. However the composition was markedly different – average student loan levels surged from $4,200 for Gen X to $14,700 for millennials. In short, millennials’ average asset position is lower, while they hold slightly more debt, which leads to an average net worth of $90,000 for millennials and $130,000 for Gen X.

In closing the report notes,

We observe that millennials have been going to school longer and delaying major life events. Thus, it makes sense that they hold lower levels of assets. They have had less time in the labor force, and a smaller share of them have moved out on their own, which contributes to the lower levels of residential assets. However, they have shown a higher propensity to save for retirement and to avoid credit card debt.