The FBI has a treasure trove of data on hate crimes, broken down by race, type of crime, city or state it occurred, motive and so on. The positive out of all of it is the overall trend of hate crimes has fallen dramatically since 1996 in absolute and relative terms. As always, we present the data without emotion. The figures published here are reported by the FBI. The Census Bureau is used for any population data.
As we reported in the previous post, the mainstream media is desperate to paint a narrative that anti-Asian hate crimes are about to go through the roof. Who might be behind it?
The FBI data would suggest that a likely culprit of anti-Asian hate crimes might be whites, who make up c.75% of the population and totalled around 54% of hate crime offenders in 2018. Black Americans make up 13% of the US population but in 2018 were responsible for 24% of all hate crimes. Unknown races made up 12.9% and mixed races made up 6.9%. Asian-Americans are responsible for only 1.3% of offenders of hate crime, below their 5.8% representative population.
Over time, if we boil down hate crimes by race as a percentage of the overall representative populations, which doesn’t take into account repeat offenders, we can see clearly that not only has hate crime fallen in absolute terms it has plummeted in percentage terms too.
The FBI stats would tell us that Black Americans are twice as likely to commit hate crimes as White Americans as a percentage of their respective representative populations. That would be a narrative inducing headline, wouldn’t it? In absolute terms, whites still commit hate crimes at over 2x the rate of blacks and 42x that of Asians. However, the more important way to look at the data would be to say that as a % of hate crimes, over 99.98% of Black, White and Asian Americans are not in this cohort. Period.
Where does racially based hate crime usually occur? One could easily twist the data on that too.
One could argue that Elloree, South Carolina has 511x the race-based hate crimes of the national average. Springfield and Calhoun Falls, South Carolina would seem to support the data that South Carolinians are unhinged. Or do they? If we look at South Carolina as a state, hate crimes are more or less the same as the national average. What we did note from the stats is that the populations of Elloree, Springfield and Calhoun Falls were 652, 488 and 1,925 respectively vs a state population of 5.08 million.
We might say that a more densely populated area like Seattle (3.4mn residents) is 20x more racist than the national average. Or Washington DC at 10x. Decatur, Texas is 13x more racist per head of population but the State of Texas is below the national average. Is it a fair reflection? Probably not. The data can tell whichever story one wanted to paint. Would the media tread carefully here?
By state, the FBI data suggests the District of Columbia would seem to home to the highest percentage of all hate crimes for a state/district in America, even though as a % of the resident population, 99.96% of the citizens there are not. We can see how easy it is to paint narratives.
For the sake of comparison, we coloured the states by 2016 presidential election results. It would seem there were more Democratic-held states (blue) than Republican-held states (red) that were above the national average for hate crimes as a % of the resident population. It is not a very valid comparison but we often only hear that only Republicans are unabashed racists. Although one might argue that DC hate crimes are still committed by Republicans, even though party affiliation is not taken by the FBI. Perhaps it should!?
The places where race-based hate crimes were committed threw up some interesting statistics. 25% were committed at or around the home. 20% on a highway, alley or street. 8% were unknown. Most other cases were reported at public venues such as schools, supermarkets, convenience stores or gas stations. Race hate crimes are even reported in prisons.
When religious hate crimes are committed, most are unknown. Not surprisingly, 15% occur outside a place of worship.
Most sexual orientation hate crimes occur at or around home or alleys and streets. Bars and nightclubs account for 5%.
Although hate crimes are naturally better borne out by motives. As we can see in this chart below, c.70% of hate crimes are driven by actual offences – assault, vandalism, robbery, burglary, car theft, larceny, murder or rape. 30% is based on intimidation which could range from name-calling, racist bill posters to threats of violence.
Yet does a white carjacking a black or vice versa have the primary motive of race or theft? Is race sometimes not a factor but happenstance? Is the motive to steal a Ferrari or take the car because of the occupant’s skin? Yet the victim may point to the race of the perpetrator when filing the report.
It is too easy to twist the data on hate crimes.
Is it possible COVID19 hate crimes will get a separate section in the 2020 FBI data series? Will there be a tidal wave of anti-Asian crimes as a result of Trump calling it the “China virus“?
We don’t think it is lost on most people where the virus originated but at the same time, we would also imagine that racists didn’t need any assistance to form bigoted views. Their narratives had plenty of ammunition to work with before Trump or the mainstream media mentioned it.
The better way to look at hate crimes is that they have fallen since 1996 when FBI data collection began. Whites now commit 48% fewer hate crimes as a proportion of their population cohort on a relative basis and 43% on an absolute basis. There has been a 37% relative and 18% absolute drop in hate crimes caused by blacks and 77% and 49% respective decline in Asian perpetrated hate crimes.
In aggregate there has been a 43% relative and 30% absolute decline in all hate crime offenders since 1996. Yet the media would have it that hate crimes are surging to unprecedented levels. Simply not true.
Let us not forget when claims of racist hate crimes backfire. An issue over alleged racism started when a student from Oberlin College was caught shoplifting two bottles of wine from Gibson’s Bakery while trying to buy another with a fake ID. Allyn Gibson, son of the owner chased down the shoplifter but was attacked by his accomplices. The perpetrators claimed racial profiling by the store. Oberlin College’s Dean of Students, Meredith Raimondo, joined in student protests calling Gibsons a “racist establishment.” It was then that Oberlin ended all business with the bakery (which had been an ongoing supplier to the college since 1885). Flyers were printed and the store attacked.
Oberlin College in Ohio was sued for defamation and charged $44.2m in damages. It was awarded by the court to Gibson’s Bakery for unsubstantiated claims of racism.
Which begs the question, just how severe were the hate crimes reported by the FBI, were they prosecuted and how many were thrown out for the lack of evidence or being unsubstantiated? That is not contained in the published FBI data.
As with almost everything, the mainstream media want to whip up a story that anti-Asian hate crimes could surge during the current pandemic due to Trump calling it the “Chinese virus“. Never mind that the mainstream media used the term itself until it became more fashionable to turn it into a dog whistle to attack the president. Forget context and perspective when chasing clickbait.
Hate crime in America has fallen from 9,861 incidents in 1997 to 7,120 in 2018. These are official FBI stats. We’ll have to wait till November 2021 to get the official 2020 aggregated hate crime statistics unless the FBI release an interim statement.
The Hill noted,
“The FBI is assuring the public that investigating hate crimes remains a top concern amid the coronavirus outbreak.
The agency updated its guidance on COVID-19 to note that “protecting civil rights and investigating hate crimes remain a high priority for the FBI.” The update comes amid growing warnings about hate crimes targeting Asian Americans over the coronavirus.
The bureau added in an intelligence report obtained by ABC News this week that “hate crime incidents against Asian Americans likely will surge across the United States, due to the spread of coronavirus disease … endangering Asian American communities.”
According to the FBI, anti-Asian hate crime has fallen from a peak of 527 in 1996 to 148 incidents in 2018. In 2018, Asians were 0.00071% likely to suffer a hate crime relative to the Asian American population. Technically, one could argue there was a 13% surge on the 2017 figure. Why didn’t the media drum up a story on that?
After the 9/11 terrorist attack, anti-Islamic hate crimes surged from a trough of 22 before the incident to 481 in 2002. At last count, there were 188 hate crimes against the Muslim community in 2018, or 0.0076% of the representative population in America, a 31% fall on 2017.
Anti-Native American hate crimes trended at a very low level out to 2010. Since then they’ve surged from a low of 44 cases to 154 under Obama and at last count under Trump sit at 194 in 2018.
Anti Hispanic hate crime has fallen from a peak of 636 in 1997 to a trough of 299 in 2015 to 485 at last count.
Anti-Semitic hate crimes remain the highest among all religions in America. They have drifted down to a low of 609 in 2014 from the peak of 1,182 in 1996 but in 2018 saw a resurgence to 838 or 0.0147% of the representative population.
As a % of the black population, Anti-Black hate crimes have fallen from 0.0131% to 0.0046% of their racial background. In 2018 hate crimes fell 4% on 2017 to 1,943 incidents. In 1996 this figure was 4,469.
Why didn’t the media run the narrative of Zika or Ebola causing a surge in anti-African American crimes given those viruses were named after places in Africa? Surely any old excuse will do for foaming at the mouth racists.
As a % of the total population, anti-white hate crimes have slid from 0.00052% in 1996 to 0.00024% in 2018, up from 0.00016% in 2011. The media would never run a narrative that hate crimes against whites have jumped since 51% since 2011.
However, what would a surge in anti-Asian hate crimes entail in the media’s mind? With the law of small numbers, any surge won’t require much in absolute terms.
As of 2018, statistically one was 8x more likely to suffer an anti-LGBT attack than an anti-Asian hate crime in America.
In a world where smartphones are everywhere (aka amateur news reporters), it is surprising that despite this, the mainstream media hasn’t unearthed one grainy picture of a racist wailing at Asians over COVID19. Could it be the media might have to stage a Jussie Smollett hoax to drum up the narrative?
We have probably all seen the supposed facepalm moment by Trump’s lead on COVID-19, Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The mainstream media has been eager to write about massive disagreements between Fauci and Trump. The hope is that he sacks him so they can fuel their chronic Trump Derangement Syndrome by creating conspiracy theories there is a rift.
Dr Fauci came out yesterday countering this narrative by saying,
“That is really unfortunate. I would wish that would stop because we have a much bigger problem here than trying to point out differences…
…the president has listened to what I have said and to what the other people on the task force have said…when I have made recommendations he has taken them. He has never countered or overridden me…
…The idea of just pitting one against the other is just not helpful. I wish that would stop and we would look at the head at the challenge we have to pull together to get over this thing…”
His interview here. From 6:13 is where he discusses the non-existent rift.
Whether it is the Democratic Party exploiting a crisis by stalling a rescue bill with rubbish or the mainstream media drumming up a narrative, it is clear that defeating Donald Trump is a far more important operation than stopping a pandemic and destroying the economy in the process.
Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) knows no bounds. Yes, the mainstream media (MSM) is celebrating the milestone that the Dow is below the level when Donald Trump was inaugurated.
We have always said that if Trump continued to boast about market gains he would have to wear it on the downside too. Alas, he is being hoisted by his own petard.
Sadly, as much as CNN and others relish the though of Trump out of office, we sincerely doubt the vast majority of Americans would trade a pandemic with catastrophic unemployment over business as usual before the WuFlu with a Trump at the helm.
Markets are forward looking. They anticipate where corporate earnings are likely to be. This market rout has little to do with Trump’s policies in isolation.
We’ve said repeatedly that global central banks have created a debt bomb through reckless monetary policies over the last two decades. They have proved just how little impact cutting rates to zero or throwing $850bn in handouts has on markets. They’re out of ammunition. Confidence is shot. We’re in uncharted territory.
Boeing is the perfect canary in the coal mine. The 737MAX debacle which is imminently due to be on sale again to a market that has effectively vanished. Airlines are cutting routes and it will be up to the zombie lending cycles of aircraft leasing companies to renegotiate rates so they can keep the patient alive. Airlines will push out deliveries.
However before Boeing’s core business troubles, the management embarked on short term incentive chasing buybacks to the tune of $43bn since 2013. The company is trading negative equity and has drawn down ALL of its credit lines ($13.8bn) and now wants a handout.
All of this is the product of two decades of mindless expediency. Governments are just as culpable for allowing greed to override common sense. No lessons have been learnt since 2000 and especially 2008. Blue chips like Boeing and GE are now heading to record lows because of it. Ford Motor is rated junk. How long before Boeing and GE fall foul of the same problem?
We are particularly interested in the next set of results from Parker Hannifin. It is like the global industrial hardware store. All of the major manufacturers use Parker for parts – pumps, hydraulics, pneumatics, valves, hoses etc. When we see Parker’s upcoming report on order flows we can gauge how bad it is at the manufacturing coal face.
This time we are staring at a “global depression” and it would be nice to think the MSM would try to put some context around the ramifications of this virus and the raft of economy killing policies governments around the world are introducing instead of just blaming Trump. Yes, he’s been his normal self during this but is he responsible for the actions of other countries going into shutdowns? Seriously? Do the US Coronavirus stats stack up poorly vs countries like Italy on a relative or absolute basis? No. Moreover COVID-19 cases in the US are a mere fraction of H1N1 swine flu cases which the media made nowhere near the level of hysteria as now. It’s a disgrace how far the media will go for clickbait.
Had the world’s central banks behaved sensibly to stop excessive debt and allowed markets to function freely, this pandemic would have had far less effect than it is now because we would have had the ammunition to fight this war of attrition. Now all our governments and regulators are doing is moving phantom armies across maps trying to stop economic Armageddon.
We buy shares because we expect to gain a return. We all know there are risks attached. As we wrote yesterday on Boeing, it has embarked on reckless buybacks which have compromised the balance sheet. The company has drawn down all of its $13.8bn in credit lines from banks overnight. It is panic stations. It was completely avoidable.
How ironic that companies which are among those that splurged $4.5 trillion on share buybacks just to chase short term management incentives will be the first lining up for taxpayer support to save them from negligent governance.
We say shareholders should suffer the downside of that investment choice. They had the power to remove officers from the companies they entrusted management to. If a company goes belly up, let other players in the market pick up the spoils for fire sale prices.
The Wolf Street correctly noted,
“The Trump administration is putting together a rumored $850-billion stimulus package that will include taxpayer funded bailouts of Corporate America, according to leaks cited widely by the media. Trump in the press conference today singled out $50 billion in bailout funds for US airlines alone. A bailout of this type is designed to bail out shareholders and unsecured creditors. That’s all it is. The alternative would be a US chapter 11 bankruptcy procedure which would allow the company to operate, while it is being handed to the creditors, with shareholders getting wiped out.”
All this Trump package will do is encourage the same bad behaviour. We think this is nothing more than trebling down on the problems that hit us in 2008. But hey, it’s an election year!! Reckless.
As usual, the SEC has been asleep at the wheel. Same as in the lead up to 2008. This is what happens when regulators hire clueless lawyers who don’t have a clue about how markets operate. Therefore they miss crucial events.
As for shareholders – you earned it.
The only upside to this market volatility is that no one has talked about climate change for weeks! Probably because when people are about to lose their livelihoods, all of a sudden virtue signaling is worthless. That goes for diversity and inclusion too. Every cloud has a silver lining.
This is what happens when the mainstream media are too busy heaping on capitalism to bother to double-check the calculations from a tweet uploaded by a fashion news writer. In true socialist fashion, the mainstream media are all happy to push a narrative that it is ok to reap the spoils of someone else’s hard work.
At the very least, well played to the original tweeter Mekita Rivas to troll herself with,
“I know, I’m bad at math.“