#impeachment

MSM relishes trade of economic depression via pandemic over Trump as POTUS w/ no virus

Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) knows no bounds. Yes, the mainstream media (MSM) is celebrating the milestone that the Dow is below the level when Donald Trump was inaugurated.

We have always said that if Trump continued to boast about market gains he would have to wear it on the downside too. Alas, he is being hoisted by his own petard.

Sadly, as much as CNN and others relish the though of Trump out of office, we sincerely doubt the vast majority of Americans would trade a pandemic with catastrophic unemployment over business as usual before the WuFlu with a Trump at the helm.

Markets are forward looking. They anticipate where corporate earnings are likely to be. This market rout has little to do with Trump’s policies in isolation.

We’ve said repeatedly that global central banks have created a debt bomb through reckless monetary policies over the last two decades. They have proved just how little impact cutting rates to zero or throwing $850bn in handouts has on markets. They’re out of ammunition. Confidence is shot. We’re in uncharted territory.

Boeing is the perfect canary in the coal mine. The 737MAX debacle which is imminently due to be on sale again to a market that has effectively vanished. Airlines are cutting routes and it will be up to the zombie lending cycles of aircraft leasing companies to renegotiate rates so they can keep the patient alive. Airlines will push out deliveries.

However before Boeing’s core business troubles, the management embarked on short term incentive chasing buybacks to the tune of $43bn since 2013. The company is trading negative equity and has drawn down ALL of its credit lines ($13.8bn) and now wants a handout.

All of this is the product of two decades of mindless expediency. Governments are just as culpable for allowing greed to override common sense. No lessons have been learnt since 2000 and especially 2008. Blue chips like Boeing and GE are now heading to record lows because of it. Ford Motor is rated junk. How long before Boeing and GE fall foul of the same problem?

We are particularly interested in the next set of results from Parker Hannifin. It is like the global industrial hardware store. All of the major manufacturers use Parker for parts – pumps, hydraulics, pneumatics, valves, hoses etc. When we see Parker’s upcoming report on order flows we can gauge how bad it is at the manufacturing coal face.

This time we are staring at a “global depression” and it would be nice to think the MSM would try to put some context around the ramifications of this virus and the raft of economy killing policies governments around the world are introducing instead of just blaming Trump. Yes, he’s been his normal self during this but is he responsible for the actions of other countries going into shutdowns? Seriously? Do the US Coronavirus stats stack up poorly vs countries like Italy on a relative or absolute basis? No. Moreover COVID-19 cases in the US are a mere fraction of H1N1 swine flu cases which the media made nowhere near the level of hysteria as now. It’s a disgrace how far the media will go for clickbait.

Had the world’s central banks behaved sensibly to stop excessive debt and allowed markets to function freely, this pandemic would have had far less effect than it is now because we would have had the ammunition to fight this war of attrition. Now all our governments and regulators are doing is moving phantom armies across maps trying to stop economic Armageddon.

Whose state of mind should be shredded? Fact checking Trump’s SOTU claims

Really? Nancy Pelosi defended her actions at the SOTU by saying she “shredded his state of mind!

We fact check Trump’s claims below beyond the unemployment figures we put forward yesterday.

—–

CLAIM: “In 8 years under the last administration, over 300,000 working-age people DROPPED OUT of the workforce. In just three years of my administration, 3.5 MILLION working-age people have JOINED the workforce.”

TRUE

During Obama’s two terms in office, the participation rate dropped from a high of 65.7% to 62.7% by the end. Since President Trump took office, the rate has grown from 62.8% to 63.2% which sums to c.3.7 million more people joining the workforce.

Source: BLS

——

CLAIM: “The median household income is now at the highest rate ever.”

TRUE

The U.S. Census has been tracking median household income since 1984. In 2018, the last year recorded by the U.S. Census Bureau, household median income was at $63,179, the highest number recorded.

Source: Census Bureau

——

CLAIM: In the Democratic response, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said that more than 275 bipartisan bills sit on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s desk.

TRUE

Source: Congress roll calls

——

CLAIM: “Under my administration, seven million Americans have come off food stamps and 10 million people have been lifted off of welfare.”

TRUE

“Food stamps” aka U.S Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) data shows seven million less people than there were before President Trump took office. Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance saw a roughly 4.7 million person decrease.

Source: SNAP

——

CLAIM: President Trump claimed that America has gained 12,000 new factories under his administration after losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations.

TRUE

The Bureau of Labor tracks manufacturing establishments every quarter. US had 398,837 factories at the start of Bush’s presidency in 2001 and 343,972 manufacturing establishments at the end of Obama’s presidency in 2017. That’s a drop of 54,865. The preliminary data for 2Q 2019, reveals 356,046 factories. +12,074 since 2017.

Source: BLS

——

CLAIM: “Thanks to our bold regulatory reduction campaign, the United States has become the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world, by far.”

SLIGHTLY MISLEADING

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. has been the #1 producer of oil and natural gas in the world since 2013 before Trump took office.

Source: USEIA

——

CLAIM: “Since my election, the net worth of the bottom half of wage earners has increased by 47 percent, three times faster than the increase for the top one percent.” 

TRUE

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the reports the net worth of the bottom half of the population was $1,070,183mn at the start of 2017. As of the third quarter of 2019, it was 1,668,034mn. That’s an increase of 55.86%, more than Trump quoted. The Top 1%, had $29,955,829mn. In 3Q 2019, it was $34,533,370mn, or 15.3%

Source: FRED Top 1% and Bottom 50%

——

CLAIM: “I have raised contributions from the other NATO members by more than $400 billion, and the number of allies meeting their minimum obligations has more than doubled.” 

TRUE

NATO Europe and Canada are expected to raise defense spending by a cumulative $400 billion US dollars by 2024 to meet the 2 percent of GDP obligations – though those obligations were agreed to in 2014.

Source: NATO

——

CLAIM: “Last year, our brave ICE officers arrested more than 120,000 criminal aliens charged with nearly 10,000 burglaries, 5,000 sexual assaults, 45,000 violent assaults and 2,000 murders.” 

TRUE

Source: ICE

——-

CLAIM: “As a result of our unprecedented efforts, illegal crossings are down 75 percent since May — dropping eight straight months in a row.”

TRUE

May, 2019 saw 144,116 apprehensions. Arrests have dropped every single month since that rime, reaching 40,620 in December, 2019. January data not released but apprehensions down 72%.

Source: CBP

——

CLAIM: “In the last three years, ICE has arrested over 5,000 wicked human traffickers.” 

TRUE

ICE has made 5,387 human trafficking arrests.

Source: ICE

——

CLAIM: “We have now completed over 100 miles and will have over 500 miles fully completed by early next year.”

MOSTLY TRUE

Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf announced the completion of the border wall’s 100th mile. 400-450 miles of wall would either be completed OR under construction by the end of 2020 — not 500.

Source: DHS

——

CLAIM: “Since 2016, the violent crime rate in America has fallen nearly 5 percent after rising each of the two years before President Trump took office.”

TRUE

Violent crime fell 4.5% between 2016 to 2018. Preliminary 2019 numbers show a further decrease.

Source: FBI

——

CLAIM: Trump claimed drug overdose deaths declined for the first time in nearly 30 years.

TRUE

2018 was the first time in nearly 20 years that the number of drug overdose deaths declined and only the second time in nearly the last 30 years.

Source: CDC

—–

CLAIM: “Three years ago, the barbarians of ISIS held over 20,000 square miles of territory in Iraq and Syria. Today, the ISIS territorial caliphate has been 100 percent destroyed.”

TRUE

In March 2019, U.S.-backed forces in Syria captured the Islamic State’s last physical territory. In 2016, the ISIS held about 37,530 sq miles in Iraq and Syria.

Source: The Wilson Center

—–

Judging by her actions, should we believe “there is no such thing as eternal animosity.”

She sure has a strange way of showing it.

The only truth Pelosi spoke was that she “didn’t need lessons in dignity from the president.” She has that base well and truly covered.

The only truth in Pelosi was her denial.

Impeachment pens for sale

Nancy Pelosi’s week just gets worse. One meme doing the rounds said,

Gold Impeachment pens for sale. Used only once. Didn’t work

Outrage at the most predictable event in American history

Whatever outrage one wants to express over the rights and wrongs during the impeachment saga, it has been the most predictable event in American history.

There was no surprise that the Senate didn’t indulge the Democrats with more witnesses. For two reasons:

1) Partisan lines (don’t think for a second the Dems wouldn’t have done the same had they held a majority in the upper house). The GOP did play by the constitution in its rejection of witnesses. The Dems are the pot calling the kettle black given their actions in the House of Representatives;

2) the Democrats had all the time in the world to lengthen their own impeachment trial in the lower house to include any witnesses they chose – including Bolton. They didn’t, such was their wish to rush the trial (at least until Nancy’s pens arrived). Now it is convenient to point fingers at the GOP for not doing what it could have done itself was it to be thorough in the initial process. Is it the GOP’s fault for the sloppiness of its opponent?

It was no secret that Bolton intended to spill his version of the beans in his role as NSA director. He openly admitted as much on Twitter well before the House passed the articles of Impeachment to the Senate. The Democrats knew it. His tweets went viral. Why didn’t Schiff wait? They would have had their man in the witness box.

Politics is a dirty game. For all those that are complaining at the conduct of the GOP senators, they clearly weighed their re-election chances via their actions. At the moment, Trump’s re-election still looks assured, with the added insult Trump would technically be able to run in the 2024 election too, given a failed impeachment resets the clock.

The GOP have argued there was no victim, therefore no crime. We can play semantics til the cows come home but this trial was open and shut before it began. No surprises at all. Not lost on the American public either.

When the Washington Post ran an article on the 20th January 2017 which read,

The campaign to impeach President Trump has begun

the sinister campaign by the Democrats – who couldn’t believe Hillary wasn’t coronated – to find a way to remove Trump by any means started. Representatives like Maxine Waters were wailing “Impeach 45” well before the phone call with Ukraine. Rep Tlaib happily shouted “we’re gonna impeach the mother f@cker” when she won her seat. Well before the impeachment trial.

One has to wonder whether the Deep State goes to DEFCON 1 and tries more extreme measures to remove him. Let’s hope for all our sakes, no such event transpires.

Impeachment fizzle

If aliens landed on earth and watched the impeachment spectacle, they might be forgiven for thinking it was another soap opera.

Sadly, audiences still prefer to watch the fictitious drama of perfectly coiffed actors having on-screen revolving door love affairs over watching the narcissistic sycophants occupying Capitol Hill.

One interesting point gleaned from the Neilsen data is the drifting trend of audiences watching the Democratic Party’s Trump Derangement Syndrome in full flight.

No wonder voters and tuning out. Perhaps they figure they can make their own determination come November this year.

Maybe the networks need Hunter Biden testifying as a Senate witness to address the fizzle.

Is this why impeachment took so long to send to the Senate?

Nancy Pelosi was waiting on those customized pens to arrive from China.

Analysing 37 anti-Trump Psychiatrists for glaring bias

On July 7, 2019, a video did the rounds on social media referring to a book titled, The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump,which contained the updated findings of 37 psychiatrists and mental health experts, led by Dr Bandy X. Lu, a forensic psychiatrist from Yale School of Medicine.  It followed on from a previous work published in October 2017, where only 26 other psychiatrists had joined forces with Lu at the time. 

Social media lapped up Dr. Lu’s claim that she was the President of the World Mental Health Coalition (WMHC).  If one throws ‘world‘ in a title it sounds more impressive, doesn’t it? Although Americans often struggle with the word “world”. For decades Americans hosted a baseball event called the “World Series” where no other nations played.

Still, we felt compelled to check how gargantuan the WMHC is to properly measure its global status. For reference, the American Psychiatric Association has c. 38,000 members. We could be easily led to believe the WMHC had multiples of that. Sadly not. It has a total of 37. Yes, thirty-seven. Given the World Psychiatric Association represents 200,000 members worldwide, we can get a fair idea of how much ‘pull’ WMHC hasn’t.

Turns out WHMC is an “all-volunteer organization, and donations are used for direct educational activities, to strengthen the fabric of society as we better our collective mental health.” with the following donation manifesto:

“We:

1. provide consultation to government bodies upon request;
2. organize public forums for discussion and education; and
3. alert, protect, and educate the public when when we see signs of imminent or lasting danger within the body politic or in its leaders.” [although there is a typo they might wish to address which we have highlighted for them]

Perhaps the most telling part of the bias in the updated version can be found in the Amazon summary of the latest book,

The prestigious mental health experts who have contributed to the revised and updated version of ‘The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump’ argue that their moral and civic “duty to warn” supersedes professional neutrality.

You don’t say? If these psychiatrists ever testify in court (as they proudly claim they often do), any attorney defending the accused should just dredge out this summary to prove they aren’t impartial by their own admission.

Lu proved once again that Trump Derangement Syndrome lives and breathes within the walls of elite tertiary institutions of America, just like Stanford law professor Pamela Karlan who admitted she crossed the road to avoid walking in front of a Trump building during her impeachment testimony. This is the level of maturity one gets for a $70,000pa education.

The WMHC has no qualms publishing a question from a town hall which included an “…historic number of leading psychiatrists in our country felt the imperative to publish such a book because of their unprecedented fears about a President with such severe mental problems…”

Historic being 37…If 500 law professors can get their act together on co-signing a letter on articles of impeachment, surely the psychiatric community can achieve a higher watermark. May we suggest they take a leaf out of the 11,000 scientists who signed a letter on climate change which Mickey Mouse, Albus Dumbledore or Araminta Aardvark were among the co-signatories.

Back to the video. Lu’s opening statement was that Trump “failed every criterion for rational and reality-based decision-making capacity.”

Reading in a robotic style off an autocue, Dr. Lu said that Trump is unfit to be president based on the wealth of data gleaned from the 448-page Mueller Report (released to the public on April 18, 2019). So between April 18th to July 7th, the WMHC has absorbed all 448-pages with a thorough and impartial eye.

Forget that the Mueller said under oath that the report “did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated” with Russia.

Dr Lu said, “first and foremost, we want to remove Mr Trump’s access to nuclear weapons and war-making powers…we could offer many more, but given the urgency, we decided to focus on the two most important.”

Since when did 37 psychologists become experts in foreign policy?  In more than 1,000 days in office, no country has come close to being nuked by Trump. Unlike his predecessor, foreign powers realise he is not messing about. Cross a red line and there are consequences. Period. Are psychiatrists confusing unorthodoxy with mental illness?

Did the WMHC predict that Iran would end its retaliation so soon? It is a bit silly to believe that they won’t continue the 4-decade proxy war.

However CNN (which is in thorough need of psychiatric assessment alongside WaPo. NYT and other mainstream media outlets) indulged us with, “Iran’s strikes seem intended to avoid US deaths. Here’s why that might be the case.” Wow. That is a pretty darned expensive way to fire shots across a bow. We guess once in possession of Obama’s gift of billions, Iranian generals can afford the luxury of expending multiple $100,000 missiles instead of $1,000 shells.

Maybe the WMHC can tell us why CNN believes those thoughtful leaders of the Iranian regime were compassionate enough to spare the lives of an enemy they swear death to. Who knew?

Lu makes the audacious claim that, “Our work is not about Mr Trump who may not be a danger as a private citizen, but about protecting society against the powers of the presidency in a person who has not demonstrated the ability to handle them.

If the work isn’t about Trump, why does the WMHC have a section that also targets this administration’s border protection policies? It released a statement on refugees which said the following,

We write as mental health professionals who are deeply concerned about the psychological harm our nation’s current immigration practices inflict on asylum seekers, immigrant communities, and our society…We are alarmed that recent changes in executive policy and personnel show increasing cruelty with intent to inflict as much pain as the law allows.”

It is a safe assumption to think that the WMHC members aren’t staunch Republicans. Never mind that Obama first introduced kids in cages separation laws at the border, something confessed by the mainstream media late last year. Who needs facts on the psychiatrist’s couch?

Presumably, the next iteration of the book will suggest that the 63m that voted for Trump are equally in need of having their voting rights repealed for their inability to handle their democratic rights.

Lu proudly states she has testified in court cases with respect to forensic psychiatry but in this case feels that interviewing the subject is not important. She read out from the screen,

As the evidence was overwhelming, and since outside perspectives are more important in a functional exam than a personal interview, we did not feel we needed one…the wealth and quality of the report’s content made this possible…in fact we had more and better data under sworn testimony than we have ever had in our usual practice.

Psychiatrists are banned by law from diagnosing patients without examining them although Lu thinks this step is unnecessary to make a determination that he is unfit. Hmmm.

Also, we are not interested in a diagnosis of the president because he is not our patient.

Lu said her group offered the president to undergo an examination if he believed himself fit. His office acknowledged receipt of the request. Like any sane human being, a polite “p*ss off” was the only appropriate reply to a bunch of sanctimonious intellectuals who think they know better than all of us.

Force in numbers (even as tiny as 37) signing consensus-based documents like this are the latest weapons used by liberals. Albert Einstein once said to a scientist who claimed he’d get 100 scientists to prove him wrong replied, “it only takes one!

Of course, we can already hear the defenders of the WMHC ring loud on the basis of their academic credentials.

However, we hold a different view. Just because one holds qualifications in a particular field from a reputable institution, doesn’t mean they don’t carry biases or conflicts of interest. Schools with brand names often escape rigorous scrutiny because they are so revered and citing them is seen as adding credibility to one’s own arguments.

In 2015 a claim was made against Harvard for not disclosing financial conflicts of interest. A press release entitled ‘Clean air and health benefits of clean power plan hinge on key policy decisions’ constituted a gushing praise of a commentary entitled ‘US power plant carbon standards and clean air and health co-benefits’ by Charles T. Driscoll, Jonathan J. Buonocore, Jonathan I. Levy, Kathleen F. Lambert, Dallas Burtraw, Stephen B. Reid, Habibollah Fakhraei & Joel Schwartz, published on May 4, 2015, in Nature Climate Change.

The claim (a letter to the Dean) suggested that

“two of the co-authors of the commentary, Buonocore and Schwartz, are researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Your press release quotes Buonocore thus: “If EPA sets strong carbon standards, we can expect large public health benefits from cleaner air almost immediately after the standards are implemented.” Indeed, the commentary and the press release constitute little more than thinly-disguised partisan political advocacy for costly proposed EPA regulations supported by the “Democrat” administration but opposed by the Republicans. Harvard has apparently elected to adopt a narrowly partisan, anti-scientific stance…The commentary concludes with the words “Competing financial interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests”. Yet its co-authors have received these grants from the EPA: Driscoll $3,654,609; Levy $9,514,391; Burtraw $1,991,346; and Schwartz (Harvard) $31,176,575. The total is not far shy of $50 million…Would the School please explain why its press release described the commentary in Nature Climate Change by co-authors including these lavishly-funded four as “the first independent, peer-reviewed paper of its kind”? Would the School please explain why Mr Schwartz, a participant in projects grant-funded by the EPA in excess of $31 million, failed to disclose this material financial conflict of interest in the commentary? Would the School please explain the double standard by which Harvard institutions have joined a chorus of public condemnation of Dr Soon, a climate sceptic, for having failed to disclose a conflict of interest that he did not, in fact, possess, while not only indulging Mr Schwartz, a climate-extremist when he fails to declare a direct and substantial conflict of interest but also stating that the commentary he co-authored was “independent”?”

We don’t accuse the WMHC of committing crimes but we think this example shows that we shouldn’t blindly accept the findings from academics without heavier scrutiny.

Certainly, in the case of these 37 psychiatrists, even a deplorable uneducated Trump supporter can see through the heavy coats of bias and condescending rhetoric. The ultimate irony is these people have such confidence in their own intellectual superiority that they reckoned one would look under the hood.

Maybe when 200,000 global psychiatrists ascribe to the same view as WMHC, we may be inclined to lend more credibility to the suggestions of Trump being unfit for a role. At the moment the WMHC appears to be mentally unsuited to uphold the very high standards of the wonderful work done by the rest of the mental health community.

They needn’t worry. It is likely that more than 63 million Americans will make that determination in November 2020 on whether he is still fit to serve.