#GOP

Showing up for the incumbent

Normally a virtually uncontested race for an incumbent president doesn’t motivate voters of that party to show up and vote in the primaries. In New Hampshire Trump got the all time record for voters. That should alarm the Democrats in hoping his base is sitting idly by.

Brad Pitt attacks GOP senators at Oscars

They told me I only have 45 seconds up here, which is 45 seconds more than the Senate gave John Bolton this week…I’m thinking maybe Quentin does a movie about it — in the end, the adults do the right thing.”

Thanks Brad. If only the adults in Hollywood gave 45 seconds to stop the well known issues surrounding the Harvey Weinstein saga years before. These sorts of award ceremonies used to openly joke about Weinstein’s unethical antics.

Perhaps we should ponder why Adam Schiff didn’t call John Bolton as a witness during the Democrats own impeachment trial when they had the chance, especially after he blurted all over Twitter that he had the “backstory” evidence back on November 22nd, 2019.

The House voted 15th January 2020 to send articles to the Senate.

Outrage at the most predictable event in American history

Whatever outrage one wants to express over the rights and wrongs during the impeachment saga, it has been the most predictable event in American history.

There was no surprise that the Senate didn’t indulge the Democrats with more witnesses. For two reasons:

1) Partisan lines (don’t think for a second the Dems wouldn’t have done the same had they held a majority in the upper house). The GOP did play by the constitution in its rejection of witnesses. The Dems are the pot calling the kettle black given their actions in the House of Representatives;

2) the Democrats had all the time in the world to lengthen their own impeachment trial in the lower house to include any witnesses they chose – including Bolton. They didn’t, such was their wish to rush the trial (at least until Nancy’s pens arrived). Now it is convenient to point fingers at the GOP for not doing what it could have done itself was it to be thorough in the initial process. Is it the GOP’s fault for the sloppiness of its opponent?

It was no secret that Bolton intended to spill his version of the beans in his role as NSA director. He openly admitted as much on Twitter well before the House passed the articles of Impeachment to the Senate. The Democrats knew it. His tweets went viral. Why didn’t Schiff wait? They would have had their man in the witness box.

Politics is a dirty game. For all those that are complaining at the conduct of the GOP senators, they clearly weighed their re-election chances via their actions. At the moment, Trump’s re-election still looks assured, with the added insult Trump would technically be able to run in the 2024 election too, given a failed impeachment resets the clock.

The GOP have argued there was no victim, therefore no crime. We can play semantics til the cows come home but this trial was open and shut before it began. No surprises at all. Not lost on the American public either.

When the Washington Post ran an article on the 20th January 2017 which read,

The campaign to impeach President Trump has begun

the sinister campaign by the Democrats – who couldn’t believe Hillary wasn’t coronated – to find a way to remove Trump by any means started. Representatives like Maxine Waters were wailing “Impeach 45” well before the phone call with Ukraine. Rep Tlaib happily shouted “we’re gonna impeach the mother f@cker” when she won her seat. Well before the impeachment trial.

One has to wonder whether the Deep State goes to DEFCON 1 and tries more extreme measures to remove him. Let’s hope for all our sakes, no such event transpires.

Impeachment for budding US constitutional experts

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Salvatore Balbones has written one of the better pieces as goes impeachment to all those budding US constitutional experts in The Spectator today.

In the United States, no president has ever been convicted in an impeachment proceeding, even if he was guilty. In 1998, Bill Clinton almost certainly committed at least two high crimes (perjury and obstruction of justice), and God knows how many misdemeanours, but even he was acquitted. And that was with Republicans in control of the Senate. The idea that Donald Trump would be convicted on vague charges of ‘abuse of power’ by two-thirds of a Senate where his party controls an absolute majority is preposterous. Even Donald Trump isn’t that unpopular.

And then there’s the election. In case you haven’t heard, 2020 is an election year in the United States. Conviction in an impeachment proceeding removes the incumbent from office, but it doesn’t automatically disqualify him from running again. That takes an additional vote. But if Senate Republicans not only convict President Trump but also disqualify him from holding office in the future, who would be the Republican candidate in the 2020 elections? Currently, no one else is (seriously) running. The national Republican party isn’t even holding candidate debates, and some state parties are cancelling primaries and caucuses. It seems very unlikely that the Republicans would let the Democrats walk into the White House unopposed.

Impeachment Trends, Biased Sampling and why Batman knows best

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Monmouth University has conducted an impeachment poll. It is not hard to see where the bias lies. 27% Republicans, 30% Democrats and 43% Independent. In nearly all polls conducted by the university, this is the respondent stack skew. It is so obvious that one could be forgiven for thinking the ABC Q&A programme must be taking the roll call. No surprise that Trump’s approval rating remains firmly stuck in the low 40s according to Monmouth. Monmouth had Hillary Clinton at a 9% lead over Trump in mid-October 2016. CM wonders why? Rasmussen, which was the most consistent and accurate poll leading into the 2016 election, has Trump at 48%, ahead of Obama at the same point in his presidency by 2%.

Monmouth wrote in its most recent poll, “At this time, 44% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, while 52% disagree with this course of action. These numbers mark a shift from Monmouth’s prior poll in August (35% supported impeachment and 59% did not), but it is not the first time these results have been found in the two years Monmouth has been asking this question.”

There is something telling that there have been impeachment talks for over 2 years. Just the subject matter has continually shifted. Maybe the August 2019 Monmouth impeachment poll made the level of reasoning more clear. The 25% Republican, 30% Democrat, 45% Independent produced the following results,

– A good idea or bad idea to impeach Trump. 41% plays 51% respectively,

– Why would it be a good idea to impeach – Top 5 responses – Need to follow evidence (18%), Broken the Law (17%), Moral Character (17%), Bad Policies (16%), Racism (11%).

– Why would it be a bad idea to impeach – Top 5 responses – Trump has done nothing wrong (27%), Waste of Time (22%), Partisan Witch Hunt (13%), Trump has done Good Job (12%), Congress should work on other things (10%).

Interesting to see that racism, moral character and bad policies are viewed as plausible grounds for impeachment. The March 2019 poll from Monmouth, the question put as to whether Democrats are more interested in the truth vs undermining Trump, the results were 31% vs 46% respectively.

So even with a high proportion of skew against Republicans (Consistently at 25-27%), the results are rarely pointing to massive landslides against Trump. It should come as no surprise that when analysing the party affiliation in the poll, there is heavy partisan bias which sort of defeats the purpose of the poll putting out meaningful data. If anything the “independent” people who have contributed to the poll do not seem to be giving Monmouth the results they are hoping to get.

Of course, the mainstream media made extra effort to report that 4 in 10 Republicans thought Trump “probably did” mention the possibility of investigating Biden implying 60% didn’t. If you read the hyperlink address, it clearly makes out the majority of GOP supporters don’t believe which is disingenuous. 31% said, “don’t know.” Do we assume that all people read the transcript?

In this day and age the number of people that make kneejerk reactions – driven by media headlines (or suspiciously cut videos to remove context) on both sides of the partisan divide – without even reading the body of the article, let alone facts means such data polls tell us little. 

Last week, Rasmussen noted, “But 46% think it’s more likely that Trump will be reelected in 2020 than defeated by the Democratic nominee or impeached, unchanged from late July…28% see a win by the Democrats’ candidate as more likely, down from 33% two months ago. 17% believe Trump is likely to be impeached before serving his full term in office, up from 11% in the last survey but down from a high of 29% when Rasmussen Reports first asked this question in late December 2017.”

In the end, Batman knows best. “Don’t trust the polls.

Why the left is better at spurring economic activity

You have to hand it to the Democrats. They are truly useful in boosting economic activity. Democratic Party presidential candidate Joaquin Castro thought shaming San Antonio, Texas donors to the Trump campaign might help his cause. One person he made reference to was the owner of Bill Miller Bar BQ. Thankfully San Antonians responded in style. The restaurant has been going gangbusters since. Tailbacks for the drive-thru and lines out the door. A bit like the time the left singled out In-N-Out Burger and Chick-fil-A.

Note that In-N-Out Burger sales surged 11.8% on 1.8% increase in stores. Meaning same-store growth must have been astonishing in F&B terms. Chick-fil-A as we know is the fastest growing fast food outlet in America and #3, behind McDonalds & Starbucks.

Maybe Castro can tell Americans in future debates that he is good for business growth. He has absolute proof of that.