#feelthebern

Bernie Sanders finally creates value

SPX

Democratic Party hopeful Bernie Sanders announced overnight that he is dropping out of the presidential primaries. For the first time ever, his actions actually led to substantial wealth creation, sending the S&P500 up 3.4% on a $21 trillion market cap index.

All jokes aside, we thought markets have found a (short-term) bottom. S&P has reclaimed almost half of the peak since the corona-crash. We question the sustainability of this rally. At the moment the trend is our friend. We pointed out that the kitchen sink would be thrown and provide one last hurrah before the realities of businesses coping with a return to business played out.

As the lockdown continues, it is very hard to determine what the actual prints will be for large-scale macro-economic data and where that fits into expectations. We know that the Fed has already been out hosing the credit markets with promises of unlimited QE.

The housing market is already giving us hints. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Volume Survey, the total number of loans in forbearance grew from 0.25% to 2.66% from March 2 to April 1, 2020, with mortgages backed by Ginnie Mae seeing the largest growth (from 0.19% to 4.25%).

While not strictly an apples for apples comparison, the Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked in Domestic Offices, Top 100 Banks Ranked by Assets peaked at 12.89% in 2010.

Plenty of trouble ahead. The market complacency is quite astonishing.

Latest Bernie vs Trump poll

The latest Rasmussen poll notes the following:

President Trump would KO Democrat front-runner Bernie Sanders if the 2020 presidential election were held today.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Trump earning 50% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Sanders’ 43%. Seven percent (7%) are undecided. 

The incumbent president wins 84% of the Republican vote and leads 49% to 39% among voters not affiliated with either major party. Sanders captures 75% of Democrats, but nearly one-in-four Democratic voters (22%) opt for Trump instead.”

As with polls, there will be any number showing Sanders in front. After countless polls pointed to a Clinton coronation, how wrong they were. The betting agencies even started paying out early!

Hard to believe that Sanders has a shot despite solid crowd support which we have commented on before. This comment from someone to his social media page which discussed universal healthcare and free education is to the point.

I’m a middle class blue collar worker and things are better now than they were in 2016. I don’t want to be taxed higher and my job provides perfectly fine health care benefits that I pay into. I don’t want them f•cked with by someone who has done nothing their whole life except pump up communist dictators. You have brought nothing to the table in your years in government.

You should also be encouraging people that can’t afford college to go learn a f•cking trade instead of taking loans they can’t pay because they majored in some bullshit nonsense that isn’t needed.”

Bernie can whip up crowds too

17,000 showed up to Bernie Sanders’ latest rally in Washington. We shouldn’t underestimate the scope of his support despite not being able to cost healthcare for all, free education or canceling student loan debt. Some pundits put it at $60 trillion.

While we still think Trump will win 2020, the Democrats need to carefully weigh their hatred of the president vs their dislike for Sanders stealing the Democratic nomination as an independent. The DNC is no stranger to dismissing democratic process in the primaries.

Wit & wisdom of Mike Bloomberg’s locker room talk

 

タイトルなし

Will the public honestly care about what Mike Bloomberg said 30 years ago? How soon we forget that Donald Trump’s “grab ’em by the p#ssy” comments were in the final months of the 2016 election campaign. It was on the ballot and it wasn’t enough for voters to go into meltdown and pick someone who had higher standards. Or were Hillary Clinton’s standards so low that Trump was the lesser of two evils?

Mike Bloomberg’s book, ‘The Portable Bloomberg: The Wit and Wisdom of Michael Bloomberg,‘ is doing the rounds, courtesy of the Washington Post, which presumably is hoisting the flag of Bernie Sanders. In it Mike Bloomberg says,

On Negotiation

What do I want? A 10-year contract, an automatic extension and I want you to pay me. And I want a blow job from XXXX. Have you seen XXXX lately? Not bad for 50.”

Keep your legs closed

On being told “No”

Let me tell you something, buddy boy, I have pictures of you and they’re not with your wife.

Characterizing of a Competitor

Cokehead, womanizing, fag.

On the Bloomberg terminal

It will do everything. including give you a blow job. I guess that puts a lot of you girls out of business.

On computers

You know why computers will never take the place of people? Because a computer would say the sex of the person giving you a blow job doesn’t matter.

On the marriage of his employees

“Are you pregnant?”

“Male or female?”

On being asked a sport that doesn’t use balls

“Lesbian sex”

In today’s cancel culture, the past is the most formidable weapon to smash people over the head with.

FNF Media believes in “equality.” Therefore anyone that tries to smear someone for something said three decades ago, should be open to having their own past dredged up and made public.

In any event, Bloomberg’s quotes will unlikely affect his campaign run. Bernie Sanders took his honeymoon in communist Russia which is far more offensive!

Rattlesnakes are rattling

Always fun to see how politicians on the same side eviscerate each other on policy and character.

It was no different with the GOP when Trump was hammering “low energy Jeb” and “Little Marco.” In 2016. Ted Cruz even challenged Trump to a “Mano a Mano” debate such was the divide.

The problem for the Democrats is if the DNC stiffs Bernie Sanders again, his supporters will stay away in November and one has to question whether he will rush to endorse Bloomberg as he reluctantly did with Hillary Clinton.

The funny thing is that in today’s world financial market players rely on over regulation to squeeze the smaller guys out. Get politicians to make the costs of onerous compliance so high that the larger firms gain the spoils.

So Bernie would be doing the financial firms as big a favor as Bloomberg and his “crooked mates” on Wall St by putting more red tape in place. So much for helping out the poor and oppressed.

A message from Bernie Sanders’ field officer

We very much doubt Bernie Sanders would endorse what his field officer said. Perhaps his staffer is just disgruntled that Bernie cut his hours

Bloomberg-Clinton ticket?

The Drudge Report is suggesting Mike Bloomberg wants Hillary Clinton as a running mate as polling suggests the duo would be a “formidable force.”

We’re not sure whether to laugh or cry.

Don’t forget that Michael Bloomberg endorsed Hillary Clinton ahead of the 2016 election. Recall he was intending to run as a Republican back then. When his bid failed he threw his support behind Trump’s opponent.

Perhaps a formidable force in rallying Trump deplorables to the ballot box to rub her nose in it?

Clinton continues to show herself to be bitter since losing the election in 2016. Of course absolutely none of it was her fault. How nice it was of her to throw Bernie under the bus late last year when she said that he destroyed her campaign by not endorsing her after the rigged nomination.

Still, thankfully friends like Michelle Obama justified Hillary’s loss when she said, “Any woman who voted against Hillary Clinton voted against their own voice!” Who knew?

Would such a combo be a plan to have the DNC unseat Bernie Sanders from the front of the queue? Does the DNC think Bernie voters hate Trump more than them post 2016? It sort of has that stench about it.

What a gift for Trump. At the very least HRC could get one step closer to being the first female head of state, especially if she adopted Nancy Pelosi’s prayer guide for the president.

Bernie Sanders should be a Republican if he studied the facts

Bernie Sanders posted the following to his social media platform today:

Today, the 3 wealthiest Americans own more wealth than the bottom half of our people, and income and wealth inequality is worse now than at any time since the 1920s. This is a moral outrage and bad economics. Unacceptable.

Despite Bernie Sanders’ net worth of $2.5mn, there is an irony for him to act like hr speaks for the poor and oppressed.

The funny thing is that many Americans aspire to be as successful as Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates or Warren Buffett. Undoubtedly the Bottom 50% use/have used Windows, have ordered something on Amazon or used products that sit in the portfolio of Berkshire Hathaway. Bezos, Gates and Buffett all came from relatively humble beginnings. So it isn’t a system that has gifted their success.

What Sanders is forgetting is that the net worth of the Bottom 50% has improved substantially since Trump took office. What is often overlooked by politicians is the simple fact of “lived experience.” Sanders can cry about the”gap” all he wants but if a growing number of people feel less under a rock, they’ll gladly overlook the bluster of Trump and his loose Twitter fingers if he keeps delivering for them. It works the other way too. Telling voters how great they have it when they don’t has the opposite effect.

Since the series began, the St Louis Fed shows the Bottom 50%’s aggregate wealth peaked in 2Q 1991 at $4.3 trillion. In Q1 2009, that net wealth plummetted 61% to $1.7 trillion. It sunk to a rock bottom of $300 billion in 2Q 2011, 93% down.

Under Obama, net worth for the Bottom 50% declined from $1.7 trillion in 1Q 2009 to $1.1 trillion, down 35% over his two terms. This might do some explaining as to why the “forgotten” wanted large scale change.

Under Trump, the latest net worth is back to $1.6 trillion. Still well off the highs of 3-decades ago, but one imagines if things keep improving out to November, then these people won’t want to risk their fortunes reversing again.

Of course, many will ponder the unfair wealth gap of the Top 1% at $34.5 trillion in the latest figures.

Sanders should be outraged that the ultra-wealthy have done much better under Obama with a 100% gain in net worth under his term vs the paltry 15.3% so far under Trump.

Best he become a Republican instead!

Bernie voters by age group in New Hampshire

Yet more old people who clearly must not get it.

Another example highlighting how the current generation believe that they’re smarter than the previous one as well as the one that will follow them.

DNC Chair orders a recount in Iowa

Tom Perez (right) was endorsed by Joe Biden for the role of DNC Chair in Feb 2017 after the debacle that ended up being the 2016 election under Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Perez won, beating out pro-Sanders Keith Ellison.

As we know, Bernie Sanders is neck and neck with Pete Buttigieg in the Iowa Caucus. However, Perez tweeted overnight,

Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.

The NY Times commented that,

In some cases, vote tallies do not add up. In others, precincts are shown allotting the wrong number of delegates to certain candidates. And in at least a few cases, the Iowa Democratic Party’s reported results do not match those reported by the precincts.

Hopefully, any recount will result in the one that is palatable to the DNC.