#COVID19

Making hay while the rain falls?

We were surprised to see Dymocks bookstore put former Australian Climate Change Commissioner Tim Flannery’s latest book in the science section.

Amazon’s review notes, “Tim Flannery takes aim at those responsible for the campaign of obfuscation and denial that has already cost so many Australian lives and held back action on climate change.” Really?

Exactly how many lives has climate change claimed in Australia? The Australian Bureau of Statistics record the accumulated deaths from ‘Environmental-pollution-related-condition (Y97)‘ over the last decade at ZERO!!!!  Strange that climate related deaths have plunged over 80% in the last 4 decades. 

Many of Flannery’s climate predictions have also failed to eventuate.

In 2007, Flannery said, “So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Today, Sydney’s main water supply at Warragamba Dam is currently at 97.8% capacity.

In 2015, he claimed that “Sadly we’re more likely to see them [cyclones] more frequently in the future” when referring to a cyclone that hit Vanuatu. Global data shows no such trends. The UNIPCC’s extreme weather report updated in 2018 stated on page 8, “There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.”

We thought the nonsense peddled on the bushfires by The Climate Council, which Flannery chairs, spoke volumes. Our data concluded that one of its authors, who led the former fire chiefs’ crusade to blame the devastating bushfires on climate change, didn’t mention the topic when he ran one of the fire services. That is to say it that the severity of climate change to bushfire activity in these Magnus opera were conspicuous by their absence.

We think the upcoming 2020 annual reports from fire services across Australia will be dripping in climate change related topics which will only end up highlighting how it has become nothing more than a CYA convenient excuse to mask years of poor fire management.  Take this example of the commitment to mitigating the inherent risks of busfires in the 2018/19 FRNSW Annual Report:

“Where practicable, FRNSW crews were encouraged to turn off all non-essential lights on 30 March 2019 from 8:30pm until 9:30pm, joining millions of people worldwide in showing their commitment to tackling climate change and inspiring all generations to support environmental initiatives and sustainable climate policy.”

A study of how fire service budgets were allocated in recent years further highlights the alarming problem behind the bureaucratic mismanagement. 

What has become even less surprising than the lack of science peddled before us surrounding COVID-19 in recent months, is the convenient segue of supposed conventional wisdom – The Great Reset – pointing back to the fantastic opportunity to push the climate change agenda to solve for poverty, racial inequity and all other economic ills. After all, US Treasury Secretary-elect Janet Yellen has assured us her department will take care of it. Who knew?

Apart from climate change having zero correlation to COVID-19, despite Prince Harry ‘s best efforts to conflate the link, Tim Flannery has seen a great opportunity to make a quid off the theme. No harm in making hay while the rain pours. 

Still we question why so many climate alarmists believe that replacing fossil fuels with renewables will solve for saving the planet and put an end to poverty?

We are not sure how that works?

When one of the leading renewables-driven developed nations, Germany, has such high levels of energy poverty, how can this be?  In 2019, 4.75 million households received warnings that their electricity would be shut off (289,000 actually got disconnected), according to the German Federal Networks Agency (Bundesnetzagentur). All this because of a doubling of energy prices (despite studies that predicted a fall at the time of policy conception) which are a direct result of disastrous green energy diktats which started two decades ago.

The flip side is India, a developing nation. Its electricity generation policies,  according to the World Bank, lifted 271 million people out of energy poverty between 2007 and 2017 largely thanks to low priced coal-fired power. So before all the ‘Stop Adani’ climate emergency extinction rebellion crowd start pontificating that we must go carbon neutral, perhaps they might go and survey the 271mn locals as to whether they demand change??

Michael Shellenberger’s latest book, ‘Apocalypse Never‘, takes a realistic view of how to achieve optimal outcomes for the climate, renewables not being part of the equation.

Still, the best way to truly evaluate the seriousness of climate change is by watching the consumption habits of those who peddle it.

We always found it strange that Obama moved to the shores of Martha’s Vineyard last year despite the risk of rising sea levels. Former Aussie PM Kevin Rudd has also bought waterfront property recently despite climate change being the “moral challenge of our times.

Looking at 1,500 private jets clogging airports at a World Economic Forum summit takes some beating too, not to mention the 25,000 pilgrims that fly halfway across the world to attend COP summits and then tell mothers who drop their kids off at soccer practice in a 2nd-hand SUV that they are the problem. No excuses anymore. They can Zoom. 25,000 group thinkers on a screen…their individual relevance in direct proportion to the size of their microscopic avatar.

When CNN doesn’t research its own gotcha question

So refreshing to see Florida Gov Ron DeSantis push back on CNN. The network doesn’t appear to have any real journalists. Only activists.

It is fun to see DeSantis call out the network for not investigating its own intended “gotcha” question. Funny how some on Twitter turned his take down – based on the victim’s lack of preparation – as a misogynistic attack.

Why should we believe in the science when such people are modeling it?

We were continuously told last year that we must follow the science on COVID-19. No ifs. No buts. We’re all in this together. Right?

Not so fast. Politicians continued to collect paychecks while forcing so many into financial destitution by preventing their right to earn an income. Even worse the political class continuously broke their own draconian rules which landed many of the less fortunate with fines, arrests and in the worst case scenario, prison. Rules for thee but not for me.

Back to the science.

One could be forgiven for possessing a healthy dose of skepticism in questioning the medical advisories by virtue of the constant flip-flopping on how to contain the virus.

Sweden has proven that lockdowns aren’t effective. That didn’t stop a me too approach exercised by most cities/states/countries to adopt economics-destroying stay-at-home orders. It wasn’t based on a science but a safety in numbers approach. The idea that there was less political risk by following a herd mentality rather than herd immunity.

Flu guru Dr Fauci told us masks were ineffective until they became a useful political tool for him to promote their use.

Now a multitude of vaccines are upon us, science doesn’t seem to be the only driver of decisions on how it should be administered.

Were the science to be followed to the letter, wouldn’t the best option be to save lives in aggregate? Wouldn’t that be to give it to the most vulnerable members in society first i.e. the elderly?

Well the CDC has modelers like Jo Walker. Walker identifies as a non-binary trans who goes by pronouns they/them. Walker’s Twitter handle makes a pretty strong case for putting social justice ahead of science. Walker is a fervent supporter of defunding the police and claims to live on stolen land. By that measure, it is not hard to believe that such public disclosure might reveal a certain personal bias.

We don’t know about you but all we look for in data scientists (or any other profession for that matter) is the ability to do the role competently.

Are modelers like Walker partly responsible for pushing the racial inequity narrative at the CDC? In a nutshell, given there are more whites in the 65yo and above category (who just happen to be among the highest risk of succumbing to COVID-19), the CDC believes there is a strong case for minorities being bumped up the queue even if it could result in a higher final death tally.

Put it another way, if minorities dominated the most risky categories (65+) the CDC would have no need to report it because it would merely be the right thing to do.

Expect 2021 to reveal more mind numbing social justice masked as science. So much for uniting people by promoting real equality. Use identity as the yardstick. The more oppression points the better. End segregation by enforcing it.

Then some wonder why fewer and fewer people are in this together. The CDC and many groups like it have ceased being reputable agencies and become activists pushing agendas unrelated to their mandated fields.

Media worth consuming – a recap of December 2020

My good mate Jonathan Rochford of Narrow Road Capital has compiled a brilliant summary of the recent madness in markets, politics and economics. One could be forgiven for thinking it is a lot like satire. Link here.

Identifying misinformation without facts

You have to hand it to government funded media networks. Just like Australia’s ABC, America’s NPR will peddle its belief system and tell you what is misinformation and what is not.

Here are some of the responses to an NPR poll listed under “incorrect statements”:

“Humans do not play a significant role in climate change

It scored a 69% false rating. Does NPR have facts to support that misinformation?

Have they read the amount of climb downs made by the UN IPCC with respect to have very low confidence that extreme climate events are in any way linked to global warming? Obviously not. The 2018 study compiled by the IPCC just reinforced the findings of the 2013 paper by an even greater degree.

Or the hilarious article in a climate alarmist newspaper that pointed to putting faith in the very investment bankers who they wanted burnt at the stake in 2008. As long as they sing the correct tune in their endeavors of crony capitalism.

Or perhaps the EU Parliament commitment to a climate emergency bill which voted on the following proposed amendment 95 (for), 563 (against), 9 (abstain) by MEPs:

Recalls that climate change is one of the many challenges facing humanity and that
all states and stakeholders worldwide must do their utmost to measure it
scientifically so that policy, and especially spending, is based on observable facts and not on apocalyptic fearmongering or unreliable models; emphasises that there is no scientific consensus on what percentage of climate change is anthropogenic and
what percentage is natural

Wouldn’t want pesky facts to get in the way of doubling commitments to the green climate fund. Openly vote to show evidence is irrelevant.

Of the 1,115 people polled to give a true/false answer on the statement “a group of Satan-worshipping elites who run a child sex ring are trying to control our politics and media” it returned a false rating of 47%.

Perhaps the 53% that returned a true/unsure vote merely thought elements of the statement were true. After all it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that elites are trying to control politics and media in a coronavirus lockdown world. Just look at the politicians breaking the very rules we must abide by. If we step out of our homes we risk instant infection from a disease with a 99.9% recovery rate.

With an ever complicit social and mainstream media peddling fear and checking their own facts by shutting down alternative viewpoints (aka free speech), what is so hard to fathom?

Lockdown regulations explained

While vigilance is a necessary evil, we found today’s explanation of COVID restrictions somewhat similar to the schoolboy scene in Monty Python’s ‘Meaning of Life

140,000 tests since the latest cluster was discovered in NSW and only 90 cases. That means that 99.94% of tests have been negative. No ICU hospitalizations. No deaths. Yet all of a sudden people are masking up as if everything is totally different than recent months where cafes and restaurants have thrived (and still do) again.

We are curious to learn that compassion trumps science. People can celebrate Christmas within lockdown areas in limited numbers but can’t have visitors after Dec 27. Surely, if the #1 goal is to thwart the pandemic, then those two days pose a bigger risk than relenting for the spirit of the festive season. We think the reality is that the risks just aren’t as big as made out.

Let’s not get distracted by the fact that we’ve had near as makes no difference crowded stadiums at sporting events without mass infections resulting from them. Where are the public health officials reporting on the impact (or lack thereof) surrounding these events? Crickets.

Consistency in policy prescription makes for better compliance. NSW has done an excellent job in contact tracing. No question. Although that hasn’t stopped VIC Premier Dan Andrews lecturing NSW on managing the virus even though it graduated to QR codes 6 months after NSW and is still responsible for 90% of all deaths in Australia from COVID.

Despite all the fear mongering in the world, we only need to look at recent experience to know that we don’t need hard lockdowns to prevent a virus that has a 99.99% recovery rate.

Sheriff pushes back on lockdown lunacy in California

This is a letter from the Orange County Sheriff.

It is nice to see law enforcement throw lockdown lunacy back in the faces of the political class who set such ridiculous orders (that they rarely follow anyway)!

While not Orange County it is worth nothing that LA Mayor Garcetti has now banned non-essential walking. You can’t make this stuff up. Will this include skipping or hopping?

As you can see, the OC Sheriff’s department won’t be attending calls over issues like people not wearing masks. Instead, they’ll be attending to proper crimes and matters of public urgency.

NYC Mayor Deblasio’s wife in cringeworthy unity video

Aren’t these the people telling the rest of us to behave like adults and that staying at home is for our own good?

Sure, a dance will soften the blow of NYC businesses and staff crushed financially under the weight of often baseless unscientific draconian rules. Not. Maybe when one collects a public sector paycheck regardless of stage of lockdown, one can gladly glide down the stairs without a care in the world.

Video here.

Another hypocritical Democrat mayor caught defying lockdown rules

California – check

Mayor – check

Democrat – check

Defying lockdown rules – check

Yes, hypocrisy knows no bounds when it comes to elitist politicians.

San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo was forced to publicly apologize after getting caught gathering with his family for Thanksgiving in defiance of California’s COVID order which demands a maximum of three different households… He had Thanksgiving dinner with people from FIVE different households.

Much like CA Gov Newsom, Liccardo said, “I apologize for my decision to gather for Thanksgiving with my family, contrary to the rules. I understand my obligation as a public official to provide exemplary compliance w/ public health orders, & not to ignore them. I commit to do better.

Unlike Californians who aren’t in the political class, Liccardo will face no repercussions.

LA County Supervisor Sheila Kuehl was caught dining in Santa Monica just hours after she voted to ban all outdoor dining last Tuesday.

Rules for thee but not for me.

How can these politicians warn of the imminent threat of coronavirus when they display such flagrant double standards?

California’s Classist Clown

Who knew? Not much more than one week after he was caught red handed violating coronavirus restrictions dining in a fine restaurant with a dozen others including the CEO of a major medical association no less, California Gov Gavin Newsom is talking of far harsher restrictions to prevent another ‘rona outbreak issuing the threat that ICU beds could be over 100% capacity by Christmas.

Perhaps the waiters at the French Laundry know all about tipping points. Newsom knows nothing of the sort.

Rules for thee but not for me.

Oh, and don’t forget Newsom thinks Hollywood is an essential industry. Classist clown.