#childabuse

The one fatal flaw experts forget when seeking to mimic #Abenomics style endurance

Pain

Over three decades ago, the Japanese introduced a TV programme titled, ‘Za Gaman‘ which stood for ‘endurance‘. It gathered a whole bunch of male university students who were challenged with barbaric events which tested their ability to endure pain because the producer thought these kids were too soft and self-entitled. Games included being chained to a truck and dragged along a gravel road with only one’s bare buttocks. Another was to be suspended upside down in an Egyptian desert where men with magnifying glasses trained the sun’s beam on their nipples while burning hot sand was tossed on them. The winner was the one who could last the longest.

Since the Japanese bubble collapsed in the early 1990s, a plethora of think tanks and central banks have run scenario analyses on how to avoid the pitfalls of a protracted period of deflation and low growth that plagued Japan’s lost decades. They think they could do far better. We disagree.

There is one absolutely fatal flaw with all arguments made by the West. The Japanese are conditioned in shared suffering. Of course, it comes with a large slice of reluctance but when presented with the alternatives the government knew ‘gaman’ would be accepted by the nation. It was right.

We like to think of Japan, not as capitalism with warts but socialism with beauty spots. Having lived there for twenty years we have to commend such commitment to social adhesion. It is a large part of the fabric of Japanese culture which is steeped in mutual respect. If the West had one lesson to learn from Japan it would be this. Unfortunately, greed, individualism and self-entitlement will be our Achilles’ heels.

It is worth noting that even Japan has its limits. At a grassroots level, we are witnessing the accelerated fraying of that social kimono. Here are 10 facts taken from our ‘Crime in Japan‘ series – ‘Geriatric Jailbirds‘, ‘Breakup of the Nuclear Family‘ and the ‘Fraud, Drugs, Murders, Yakuza and the Police‘ which point to that old adage that ‘all is not what it seems!

  1. Those aged over 65yo comprise 40% of all shoplifting in Japan and represent the highest cohort in Japanese prisons.
  2. 40% of the elderly in prison have committed the same crime 6x or more. They are breaking into prison to get adequate shelter, food and healthcare.
  3. Such has been the influx in elderly felons that the Ministry of Justice has expanded prison capacity 50% and directed more healthcare resources to cope with the surge in ageing inmates.
  4. To make way for more elderly inmates more yakuza gangsters have been released early.
  5. 25% of all weddings in Japan are shotgun.
  6. Child abuse cases in Japan have skyrocketed 25x in the last 20 years.
  7. Single-parent households comprise 25% of the total up from 15% in 1990.
  8. Domestic violence claims have quadrupled since 2005. The police have had to introduce a new category of DV that is for divorced couples living under the same roof (due to economic circumstances).
  9. The tenet of lifetime employment is breaking down leading to a trebling of labour disputes being recorded as bullying or harassment.
  10. In 2007, the government changed the law entitling wives to up to half of their husband’s pension leading to a surge in divorces.

These pressures were occurring well before the introduction of Abenomics – the three arrow strategy of PM Shinzo Abe – 1) aggressive monetary policy, 2) fiscal consolidation and 3) structural reform.

Since 2013, Abenomics seemed to be working. Economic growth picked up nicely and even inflation seemed like it might hit a sustainable trajectory. Luckily, Japan had the benefit of a debt-fueled global economy to tow it along. This is something the West and Japan will not have the luxury of when the coronavirus economic shutdown ends.

However, Japan’s ageing society is having an impact on the social contract, especially in the regional areas. We wrote a piece in February 2017, titled ‘Make Japan Great Again‘ where we analysed the mass exodus from the regions to the big cities in order to escape the rapidly deteriorating economic prospects in the countryside.

Almost 25 years ago, the Japanese government embarked on a program known as
‘shichosongappei’ (市町村合併)which loosely translates as mergers of cities and towns. The total number of towns halved in that period so local governments could consolidate services, schools and local hospitals. Not dissimilar to a business downsizing during a recession.

While the population growth of some Western economies might look promising versus Japan, we are kidding ourselves to think we can copy and paste what Nippon accomplished when we have relatively little social cohesion. What worked for them won’t necessarily apply with our more mercenary approach to economic systems, financial risk and social values.

Sure, we can embark on a path that racks up huge debts. We can buy up distressed debt and repackage it as investment grade but there is a terminal velocity with this approach.

The Bank of Japan is a canary in the coalmine. It has bought 58% of all ETFs outstanding which makes up 25% of the market. This is unsustainable. The BoJ is now a top 10 shareholder of over half of all listed stocks on the index. At what point will investors be able to adequately price risk when the BoJ sits like a lead balloon on the shareholder registry of Mitsui Bussan or Panasonic?

Will Boeing investors start to question their investment when the US Fed (we think it eventually gets approval to buy stocks) becomes the largest shareholder via the back door? Is the cradle of capitalism prepared to accept quasi state-owned enterprises? Are we to blindly sit back and just accept this fate despite this reduction in liquidity?

This is what 7 years of Abenomics has brought us. The BoJ already has in excess of 100% of GDP in assets on its balance sheet, up from c.20% when the first arrow was fired. We shouldn’t forget that there have been discussions to buy all ¥1,000 trillion of outstanding Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and convert them into zero-coupon perpetual bonds with a mild administration fee to legitimise the asset. Will global markets take nicely to erasing 2 years worth of GDP with a printing press?

Who will determine the value of those assets when the BoJ or any other central bank for that matter is both the buyer and seller. If the private sector was caught in this scale of market manipulation they’d be fined billions and the perpetrators would end up serving long jail sentences.

Can we honestly accept continual debt financing of our own budget deficit? Japan has a ¥100 trillion national budget. ¥60 trillion is funded by taxes. The remainder of ¥40 trillion (US$400 billion) is debt-financed every single year. Can we accept the RBA printing off whatever we need every year to close the deficit for decade upon decade?

In a nutshell, we can be assured that central banks and treasuries around the world will be dusting off the old reports of how to escape the malaise we are in. Our view is that they will fail.

What will start off as a promising execution of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), rational economics will dictate that the gap between the haves and the have nots will grow even wider. Someone will miss out. Governments will act like novice plate spinners with all of the expected consequences.

In our opinion, the world will change in ways most are not prepared for. We think the power of populism has only started. National interests will be all that matters. Political correctness will cease. Identity politics will die. All the average punter will care about is whether they can feed their family. Nothing else will matter. Climate change will be a footnote in history as evidenced by the apparition that was Greta Thunberg who had to tell the world she caught COVID19 even though she was never tested.

Moving forward, our political class will no longer be able to duck and weave. Only those that are prepared to tell it like it is will survive going forward. The constituents won’t settle for anything else. Treat them as mugs and face the consequences, just like we saw with Boris Johnson’s landslide to push through Brexit.

The upcoming 2020 presidential election will shake America to its foundations. Do voters want to go back to the safety of a known quantity that didn’t deliver for decades under previous administrations and elect Biden or still chance Project Molotov Cocktail with Trump?

What we know for sure is that Trump would never have seen the light of day had decades of previous administrations competently managed the economy. COVID19 may ultimately work in Trump’s favour because his record, as we fact-checked at the time of SOTU, was making a considerable difference.

Whatever the result, prepare to gaman!

 

Bushfires more closely linked to white patriarchy than climate crisis

Again and again we have said we feel sorry for the manipulation of poor Greta Thunberg by activist adults. Yes she has a huge platform, but the more things that come out of her mouth the less credible she sounds as we pointed out yesterday with what caused Germans to cut air travel in November.

Her latest stab linking climate to the bushfires in Australia was to post on Twitter, “we still fail to make the connection between the climate crisis and extreme weather events.

Perhaps because there isn’t.

Had her overseers referred her to the very reports they themselves have published (March 2018 report on weather extremes with respect to anthropogenic induced global warming) she would have learnt,

“…There is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systemsin some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, in central North America and northwestern Australia. There is limited to medium evidence available to assess climate-driven observed changes in the magnitude and frequency of floodslow confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences..low confidence in projections of changes in extreme winds.. low confidence in projections of changes in monsoonslow confidence in wave height projections…overall low confidence because of inconsistent projections of drought changes…low confidencein projected future changes in dust storms…low confidence in projections of an anthropogenic effect on phenomena such as shallow landslides.”

Low confidence” is mentioned 230 times in the above report. “High confidence” gets talked about 169 times. “Cold” is mentioned 82x. “Hot” 44x. “Cold extreme” 11x and “Hot extreme” 8x. Is this a coincidence?

But of course a spoon fed teenager knows better than the Australian Institute of Criminology which states 85% of bushfires are accidentally, deliberately or suspiciously lit. US Forestry Service data backs up the AIC with its research revealing 90% of fires starting the same way. So unless climate change impacts the moods of arsonists, this is not a strong case.

The ultimate irony is that she actually helped make climate alarmism cool again (no pun intended) because another 9,000 extra time wasters flew into the COP25 summit in Madrid over the 22,000 that attended COP24 in Katowice.

Now that Greta has parroted,

After all, the climate crisis is not just about the environment. It is a crisis of human rights, of justice, and of political will. Colonial, racist, and patriarchal systems of oppression have created and fueled it. We need to dismantle them all. Our political leaders can no longer shirk their responsibilities.

perhaps she can get more mileage by tweeting the AIC’s report which finds the most common profile of arsonists is,

“white male, mid-20s, patchy employment record, often above average intelligence, but poor academic achievement and poor social development skills…56% of convicted structural arsonists and 37% of bushfire arsonists in NSW had a prior conviction for a previous offence. 

Poor kid

This is what happens when poor Greta Thunberg hasn’t got a script given to her by her captors. One would have thought with the Oscar winning performance of several days ago she would have the conviction to respond with a bit more fire and brimstone with respect to making demands of Trump.

It is so sad to see her exposed like this because in the end she is a vulnerable teenager who means well but is suffering immense harm being used as cannon fodder in the hyper-political snake pit.

How dare they. #setherfree #freegreta

How Dare You

My message is that we’ll be watching you. This is all wrong, I shouldn’t be up here, I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet, you all come to us young people for hope, how dare you. You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words and yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering, people are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction and all you can talk about is money and fairytales of eternal economic growth. How dare you.

4 words – “Go to you room”

If CM had spoken to his parents like that, it would not have impressed them. Not one bit.

Sadly Greta Thunberg’s abuse continues with accelerating momentum. The adults that direct her care not one bit. They enjoy her emboldened demagoguery. So much so that she is believing her own sanctimony.

How dare they. And yes Greta, you should be at school rather than taking a year off to embark on this ridiculous crusade.

Perhaps she should ask her overseers why coal fired power producing nations are banned from speaking at the conference. Is that how mature adults behave by bullying and shaming those that disagree?

Further proof and justification for Trump and Morrison’s to turn down the conference. They’ll still demand their billions in any event.

Beasts at the border?

A lot of negative noise has been made about the actions of the Customs & Border Protection (CBP) employees in the US. Notably, the arrest statistics across the entire staff of 59,178 totalled 254 people. Only 2 people were arrested for sexual misconduct. Two-thirds of the crimes that led to the arrest of CBP staff were alcohol or DV related. The Annual Report published in 2018 notes that the trend fell marginally.

The CBP Standards of Conduct state that in order to fulfill its mission, CBP and its employees must sustain the trust and confidence of the public they serve. As such, any violation of law by a CBP employee is inconsistent with and contrary to the Agency’s law enforcement mission. CBP’s Standards of Conduct specify that certain conduct, on and off-duty, may subject an employee to disciplinary action. These standards serve as notice to all CBP employees of the Agency’s expectations for employee conduct wherever and whenever they are.

Rep Jerry Nadler is calling for CBP officials to face ‘child abuse’ sanctions. Substantiated ‘crimes involving children leading to arrest numbered only 6. Six too many one might say but hardly a sign of widespread child abuse. 

We can see the total number of formal disciplinary warnings and sanctions against staff as follows over the past 3 years.

CBP.png

Note that under Trump, an 18% increase in drug testing of CBP employees (13% of the total were tested in 2017) led to a fall in positive responses to narcotics in 2017 over 2016.

A total of 12 people, or 0.02% of CBP staff, tested positive in 2017 to illicit substances.

Looking at allegations made against CBP staff, 3,806 of the 7,239 claims made were dismissed as unsubstantiated in 2017. This is down from 3,828 out of 7,740 in 2016. There were 8,253 claims in 2015. in 2017, 1,279 employees required counselling. 1,074 received written warnings. So the idea that CBP employees are merely Nazis bullying people with no consequences, it couldn’t be further from the truth. Statistically, the quarterly reported nature of the data suggest very little seasonality with respect to punishment – i.e. it is consistent.

Breaking it down by department within the CBP, 4% of the 20,954 US Border Patrol (USBP) staff were disciplined, 3% of the 29,321 Office of Field Operations (OFO) employees were cracked over the knuckles. These represented 90% of all disciplinary actions in CBP.

The highest number of CBP OFO sanctions in 2017 vs 2016 caused in the Laredo Field Office (441 -> 378), followed by the San Diego Field Office (398->408) and Tucson Field Office (328 -> 200). These figures were out of a total of 3,129 sanctions issued.

The highest number of CBP USBP sanctions in 2017 vs 2016 were caused in the Tucson Sector (809->701), followed by the Rio Grande Sector (704->568) and the El Paso Sector (317->332). These figures were out of a total of 3,168 sanctions issued.

Each year, CBP receives and reviews hundreds of allegations pertaining to use of force incidents. Authorized employees may use objectively reasonable force only when it is necessary to carry out their law enforcement duties. When these cases involve excessive force or civil rights abuse allegations, and prosecution is declined by the U.S. Attorney’s Office or the local prosecutor, the matter is then subject to an administrative investigation to determine if an employee’s actions, although not unlawful, violated Agency policy or procedure.

In FY 2015, CBP implemented a new process for reporting, tracking, and investigating use of force incidents. Under this new process, use of force cases are evaluated to determine whether the amount or type of force used was excessive or outside of Agency policy. CBP’s National Use of Force Review Board (NUFRB) reviews all lethal use of force incidents, including the use of firearms and uses of force that result in serious injury or death. The Local Use of Force Review Board reviews all less than lethal use of force incidents not addressed by the NUFRB. If there is a determination that an employee’s use of force was outside of Agency policy, the case returns to HRM for potential disciplinary action.

The remaining cases involving alleged use of force that are not handled through the NUFRB or Local Use of Force Review Boards, including allegations of excessive force, are referred to OPR or component management for review and consideration of disciplinary action.

In conclusion, CBP noted,

All CBP employees are guided by these principles of the public trust both on and off-duty. Those who breach it are held accountable for their actions.

Although the number of CBP employees arrested for misconduct on or off-duty declined for the second year in a row, the number of employees arrested continues to be a concern. CBP is addressing employee arrests through its ongoing efforts promoting education and resilience services to employees and their families, reducing the use of administrative leave or indefinite suspension when employees are subject to a criminal proceeding, and by ensuring appropriate discipline is applied.

CBP will continue to increase its transparency efforts with annual discipline overviews, publication of National Use of Force Board results, and through public engagement on our policies and operations. Finally, CBP’s internal complaints and discipline systems will remain focused on systemic improvements to reduce case investigation and administrative processing timelines and increase consistency in handling misconduct allegations and more timely arrive at discipline case decisions.”

Judge for yourself. Things are not exactly rosy, but the idea that border forces are unhinged and unaccounted is simply unfounded. To that end, steps taken to improve the situation are not limited to the following:

Improving Use of Force instruction for law enforcement personnel by extending basic training of new recruits to include a 35% increase in less lethal and 58% increase in use of force judgement/firearms related training; Adding mandatory live and computer-assisted scenario based Use of Force training for all.

Continuing release of information to the public immediately following use of force incidents and publishing monthly use of force statistics on CBP.gov

Implementing CBP’s Policy on Zero Tolerance of Sexual Abuse and Assault

We await the FY2018 figures due shortly to see whether the Trump administration has added a layer of Nazi stormtrooper to the data. CM guesses the statistics will prove otherwise.

Child abuse in UK

How demented are these parents to brainwash their kids so shamelessly? Kids as young as 3yo went with their parents to read off their demands to Norwich Councilors. One mother read on behalf of her child the things that will save the planet:

1: don’t eat meat

2: don’t fly on planes

3: don’t cut down trees

4: really rich share their money

5: use more renewable energy

6: reuse and upcycle.

There is no other word for it – child abuse. Do these climate alarmists honestly believe these kids came up with this activism on their own? Did they just happen to read a copy of UNIPCC climate bible instead of Spot, the magical dog? It’s one thing to force feed green vegetables but a whole other thing to force feed green propaganda.

To steal the innocence away from kids and fill their heads with this climate extinction rubbish is utter madness.

Who doesn’t have a memory as a young kid about imaginary monsters under the bed? Naturally our parents assured us they didn’t exist. The parents in the video within the link are advocating sticking imaginary fiction inside their heads, denying their right to innocence.

Maybe the University or Mons can hand out some more honorary doctorates to these kids like all those participation trophies which seem the norm nowadays.

Can we please get some adults in the room?

Here is a picture from the angelic pig-tailed climate strike goddess Greta Thunberg’s Twitter feed calling for another global school strike. The climate change activists are really at the point of maximum desperation. Kids are now being weaponized to fight climate change because the supposed adults in the room have done such a woeful prosecuting the case to the heretic non-believers.

It is hard to speak to those who dismiss one as a knuckle dragger from the start. What is lost on alarmists is that skeptics merely wish to be presented with facts and figures not sanctimonious finger wagging. In 99.9% of cases, when politely asking to be provided with facts, it ultimately leads to ad hominem attacks. “Your kids will thank you for it” is an argument often used as a condescending way to end a debate before it has even started. Others resort to saying skepticism comes from regrading quack websites resourced by the fossil fuel lobbyists, When CM asks alarmists about whether they have concerns over the multiple cases of fraud committed by scientists from the very (often government) bodies they spruik, not one has voiced issues with their ethics. At that point they have lost CM.

If alarmists can’t admit the fraud committed from their own side, it shows that they are utterly indoctrinated. 1+1=3. Fraud is fraud. CM has often argued that climate scientists face absolutely zero repercussions for peddling falsehoods. None. Think of the penalties handled out to the financial sector. There has been much malfeasance committed in the last few decades that have resulted in humungous penalties.

WorldCom CEO Bernie Ebbers was sentenced to 25 years based on nine counts of conspiracy, securities fraud and false regulatory filings to the tune of $11bn.

Enron’s former CEO Jeffrey Skilling was convicted on 35 counts of fraud, insider trading and other crimes related to Enron and sentenced to 24 years prison and fined $45 million.

Madoff got 150 years for his $65bn Ponzi scheme, Allen Stanford received 110 years jail for his $7bn fraud.

Yet when the scientific community commits fraudulent offences, they’re not even brought to trial. Nothing. Even worse the alarmists are only too happy to wheel out the very same scientists who have made dud predictions and push them as experts in their field.

How are billions in taxpayer funds that bail out Wall St any different from billions of taxpayer funded adventures into redundant climate change white elephants based of manipulated scientific claims any different?

CM reckons that if climate scientists faced steep fines and penalties for committing data fraud we would quickly work out we had way more than 12 years to live. Why not provide an amnesty period for scientists to come clean on any manipulation without facing any prosecution? After the date they would face stiff treatment. That is the only way to kill this industry at the source.

If scientists were forced to come clean with the truth, we would find that all of the grossly inaccurate models predicting gloom and doom were shown up for what they really were. Empty rhetoric.

Maybe the secret to solving the climate emergency is child’s play after all? Make the rules of malfeasance so transparent that even a 5 year old can understand.

If we look at the whistleblowing rules introduced by the SEC in 2011, it offered the whistleblower 10-30% of the monies saved through fraud as a reward. Surprise, surprise whistleblowing claims have shot up 16-fold since the rule’s introduction. In 2011 only 334 claims were made. In 2012, 3,001 were made. In 2014, 3,620. In 2018 it was 5,282. A total of $168mn was paid out to 13 individual whistleblowers.

Given so many scientists are probably aware of the manipulation that lies within the ranks, they have far more opportunity to dob in their crooked colleagues and collect a massive pay day.

No need for #ClimateEmergency. As the Australian Democrats used to say as an election slogan, “keep the bastards honest!”