Unemployment

Too much cash can create a crisis

A very important piece from our learned friend at Narrow Road Capital, Jonathan Rochford.

“The current conditions in credit markets are bizarre. We’re still in the midst of a global pandemic and economic downturn but credit markets are partying like there’s no tomorrow. Almost every day credit spreads go lower as anecdotes emerge of banks refusing to take term deposits from new clients. The banking system is flooded with liquidity and there’s simply not enough demand to borrow to match the freshly printed central bank cash.

The last time I remember such excessive liquidity was in early 2007. Back then I was managing a cash fund and I remember being rebuffed by several major banks when we called and asked for their rate for our short term cash. When we couldn’t find a home with them we turned to the commercial paper market and found some boring vehicles that would take our cash for a handful of basis points over the bank bill rate. We didn’t get involved with the racier structured investment vehicles (SIVs) that offered a little more yield, with several of those blowing up as the financial crisis kicked off in 2007.

In a credit spread sense it’s not as bad today as it was then with 5 year major bank senior bonds paying around 35 basis points over BBSW today compared to 10-12 basis points then. However, on an all-in (credit spread plus risk free yield) basis it is far worse today as the cash rate in 2007 was over 6%, which was miles above the inflation rate. Today, there’s very little global debt with an investment grade credit rating that offers a positive real (after inflation) return. Whilst it is easy to look back and be critical of those chasing additional yield then, it is harder to criticise the same behaviour today when central banks are deliberately punishing conservative investors with negative real returns.

The inevitable outcome of this excessive liquidity is stupid lending is happening on an ever increasing basis. Despite a large swathe of companies on the brink of default, the US high yield market has never had worse covenants and never had lower all-in yields. Several African countries have defaulted or are on the brink of default but others are easily selling new bonds. Italy and Greece have virtually no prospect of ever paying off their debts but their 10 year bond yields are barely 1% more than Germany. Today’s growing pile of dead wood debt risks becoming tomorrow’s bonfire.

All of this is happening because central banks and politicians are too afraid to tell the truth. An economy built on ever increasing levels of debt isn’t sustainable. Trying to prevent investors from taking losses only causes them to take greater risks which leads to larger losses in the long run. We’ve made a long series of bad decisions to get here and there isn’t a painless way out. The glut of cash isn’t a sign of good health, rather it indicates financial markets are delirious with stimulus and won’t stop partying until there’s a crash so big that central banks can’t affect a bail out.

Open Letter to America from Australia

Dear America,

As one of your closest allies, we cherish our long term relationship. Long may it prevail. We have spilt blood together in the defence of democracy. Australia has always been the first country to sign up to support the US on the battlefield to protect freedom and liberty.

For a bit of perspective, we thought we’d subject what is going on over there to what Aussies call a “pub test.” It is a figure of speech which depicts bar patrons decide what passes as truth or fiction over a beer. After all, a drunk man speaks a sober man’s mind.

From the offset we want to declare we have absolutely no say in how any of you choose to vote. Nor do we want to have a say. Your future should be in your hands, not ours. Although we are struck by how many liberals from other nations demand you vote according to their wishes, not yours.

We hope that November 3rd can deliver a free and fair election where democracy is the only winner. We have our doubts here.

Sometimes a voice who has no say in the outcome can provide perspective. We have no skin in the game. We just hope to provide our view of things.

In Australia, we also suffer the daily musings of a left leaning mainstream media obsessed with clickbait over facts. Nothing as bad as what you have over there but the ideology behind it is the same. Steeped in identity politics and pushing woke causes.

Our journalists, like yours, believe that Twitter is an accurate representation of the majority. Nothing could be further from the truth. We often write that journalistic integrity will only return when the media loves Americans more than they hate Trump. Ours too. What used to be a profession that thrived on facts, now focuses on activism. How many obituaries of slain terrorists read like they were scholars and selfless philanthropists of the highest order?

Watching the VP debate this week, we heard Senator Kamala Harris make the absurd assertion that foreign leaders think more highly of Chinese President Xi Jinping than President Donald Trump. Really?

What many of you may have missed several months ago was that soon after our Prime Minister Scott Morrison proposed an independent investigation into China’s mishandling of COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) retaliated with tariffs and one senior bureaucrat even went as far as to say Australia waschewing gum stuck to China’s shoe.

Aussies are stoic. To us that was a spit in the face. That annoyed us. We are sure it would rile Americans too. We maybe a small nation but we aren’t a bunch of pushovers.

Unfortunately, up to that date, our political class had long kowtowed to China because of the relatively huge size of the trading relationship with Australia. Expediency was put ahead of principle.

Since coronavirus, many Aussies, including our law makers, have come around to the same philosophy of Trump. All bets are off when it comes to China now. We’ve had enough. We don’t trust the CCP. No one wants to be insulted without reason.

Look, we understand President Trump has an unorthodox style to say the least. He can be petulant at times. He is prone to exaggeration and has a glass jaw. But he gets things done which is ultimately the main aim of his role, no?

Trump must be the only politician in living memory to be condemned for actually keeping his promises.

You don’t have to like Trump. After all who looks to their politicians for moral or spiritual guidance? Yet he is mercilessly attacked every single day by the media which often finds itself peddling false narratives. It seldom apologizes but surely American citizens must be growing tired of story after story about how the orange man is bad.

To us he is a breath of fresh air. No massaged or nuanced comments. Full blunt force. He doesn’t care who he offends. He only looks forward. We totally get that he ruffles feathers. Yet after decades of failed administrations, isn’t he a monster of their own creation? Didn’t they give birth to him? Had they executed on behalf of the American people, Donald Trump would never seen the light of day in the Oval Office.

We post a legitimate question. Can you honestly say that the Left side of politics in America has made a sound argument to the voting public as to why it considers itself the sensible, credible and morally superior alternative via its actions?

The Russia hoax – which now looks like a hit job which goes all the way to the top of the Obama administration – has revealed the sinister side of the establishment.

If this were Australia, no matter which party affiliation one supported, few if any would blindly accept such blatant collusion courtesy of taxpayer funded agencies seeking to pervert the course of democracy. We would demand those responsible be brought to justice and punish the party that indulged in the duplicitous behaviour.

You can be absolutely sure if Biden prevails, #Obamagate will be dead and buried forever. That is the sincere hope for the guilty parties. Who doesn’t delete their phone records by entering their password incorrectly? Who doesn’t take out indemnity insurance if they are following the letter of the law? Is it any wonder Obama is campaigning so hard for a man he took forever to endorse?!

Let’s not forget that Barack Obama even took to using John Lewis’ funeral as an opportunity to make a campaign speech during his eulogy. Crass. Michelle Obama has hardly graced herself talking about her “low grade depression” from her $15m Martha’s Vineyard mansion.

Even if you hate Trump, having him serve four more years to bring corrupt officials in public agencies to heel is the cheapest insurance policy Americans can pay. Failure to do so will mean that you openly authorize federal agencies to defraud you at will to remain in power. Jim Comey and friends never thought they needed to worry about their actions until Hillary Clinton lost 2016. His recent testimony was unbelievable.

We watched the Kavanaugh Senate confirmation circus in disgust. An accomplished man was besmirched in much the same fashion of Clarence Thomas in the 1990s. It was a farce.

The impeachment clown show led by Nancy Pelosi, who grinned her way through the ‘sombre occasion’, was a national embarrassment. Member of Congress, Rep Rashida Tlaib, promised to “impeach the mother f*cker!” What a disgrace to the office. She smiled on her way to cast her vote as if it was some sort of big joke. Recall the embarrassing moment where Adam Schiff chased after Jerry Nadler who stormed the podium to make his own closing remarks. Officials behaving like unruly teenagers.

Perhaps the biggest revelation to come from COVID-19 is not so much the virus but the overt display of power drunk Democrat mayors and governors. They have been borderline despotic and utterly hypocritical. These politicians live by the creed “rules for thee, but not for me!

Most recently, Nancy Pelosi got caught unmasked in a hair salon. Instead of accepting the double standard, she claimed she was set up and sought to legally ruin the business. True colours. Pelosi also showed how out of touch she is by revealing her $20,000 freezer full of boutique ice cream during lockdown when her district is in such squalor.

Who could forget Oregon Gov Kate Brown ordering child protective services on a hair salon owner who wanted to feed her family? What was the connection?

Or LA Mayor Eric Garcetti threatening to cut off the utilities of businesses defying lockdown. How pleased we were to see Californians let off July 4th fireworks in defiance of the order not to.

Or Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan calling CHAZ a “summer of love” until it affected her personally. How we laughed at these protestors demanding supplies from the functional democracy they sought to overthrow.

Perhaps the most disgraceful episode of COVID-19 was the vile reaction from the left wishing death on Trump. Argue all you want about his handling of the pandemic but the Left’s derangement and unsuitability has been on full display. Do people that wish death on others show all the hallmark qualities of leaders capable of uniting a nation?

Never mind the actions of NY Governor Cuomo stuffing nursing homes with infected patients or then NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot cheerleading identity politics and encouraging people to reject Trump’s xenophobia instead of falling back on her own medical expertise. Orange man bad.

Then came the BLM protests.

The George Floyd incident united a nation. The majority of the public were well on side in fighting for justice and equality right up to the point where they ended up being attacked by the mob in restaurants, neighbourhoods, cars or even protecting their homes.

Peaceful protests gave way to looting, arson, carjackings, assault, shootings and violence. Statues were pulled down. Public and private property destroyed and defaced. Were Nancy Pelosi’s “people will do what they do” comments acceptable? Was talking 100 days after the violence started to condemn it when the polls started to swing sincere? Of course not.

How we felt sorry for struggling businesses under the jackboot of draconian lockdowns having to suffer a further kick to the guts, despite being innocent bystanders. The damage will be lasting. Sure BLM leaders might scream that insurance will pay for the looting now but they overlook the reality that premium hikes will all but guarantee they can’t reopen.

Cities that have been run by Democrats for half a century or more ordered their police to stand down. Is it any wonder that wrapping law enforcement in red tape has dire consequences? The fools sitting on the Minneapolis City Council gave us front row seats to witness how crime flourishes when liberal policies are applied. Who knew they’d be forced to reexamine their own self-inflicted wound?

Then liberals want to tell you that Senator Kamala Harris is a credible candidate. She openly sponsored and supported the MFF which has bailed out felons charged with rape, battery and sexually assaulting an 8-yo child. She even praised career felon Jacob Blake and his family, including his anti-Semitic father. That’s right, criminals are now the innocent victims in the minds of Democrats. It is your fault they stole your wallet.

Even worse this has led to a string of activist DAs across America who want to prosecute innocent parties before evidence is even heard. Think of the sinister behaviour of Fulton County DA Paul Howard who is covering up his own unethical behavior by framing cops who acted in the scope of the law he outlined during the arrest of Rayshard Brooks. Never mind that he was drunk, resisting arrest and fired a taser at the police because he knew he was going straight back to prison. No wonder the police unions are supporting Trump.

Think of Jake Gardner who was acquitted of murder in an act of self defence. Soon after an activist DA folded to mob pressure and prosecuted him with manslaughter, Gardner committed suicide.

Then the public was subjected to woke displays by the sporting codes. The NFL, NBA, MLB and others all joined in ramming politics down the throats of fans who had just paid hard earned money to distract themselves from the grind of life. How surprising that the NBA has just realised that lecturing fans is a bad idea and will remove overt displays in the locker room?

Oh to be lectured by Colin Kapernick who openly celebrated July 4th under Obama but lambasted it as a glorification of white supremacy this year. And Disney is going to give this serial victim a contract to produce a docuseries. Don’t even get us started o the hypocrisy of Alyssa Milano.

We don’t pretend that racism doesn’t exist. However when people like Jussie Smollett, Jonathan Lopez and Sabrina Belcher stage hate crime hoaxes we feel that the fight for equality is closer than it has been for decades of people are forced to conjure it. Hate crimes are a fraction of what they were 30 years ago.

Just look at Congresswoman Ilhan Omar who has pledged to dismantle the system. You know, the very system that rescued her from a Kenyan refugee camp and delivered her to the highest levels of government office. Hardly held back by systemic racism, wouldn’t you say?

When Joe Biden says “#YouAintBlack“, “poor kids are just as smart as white kids“, described blacks as “superpredators” in the 1994 crime bill, told Hispanics that their community is far more diverse than blacks or letting you know he is surviving lockdown because a black woman is restacking the grocery shelves, who is the racist? Trump has denounced white supremacy countless times. Listen for yourself.

We could go on and on with countless more examples including Nancy Pelosi’s recent wish to invoke the 25th Amendment. These people will stop at absolutely nothing to gain power. They care not one jot for you. Don’t forget that Nancy Pelosi felt so deeply for the loss of George Floyd that she called him George Kirby. Senator Chuck Schumer got it wrong too and guess what, YouTube has removed the video!

Yet another issue where Trump is 100% correct. Do you want some biased tech giant in control of what it deems you can consume? If these open platforms are taking on editorial decisions on what you are allowed to see, they should lose sanctuary status from prosecution. Surely you should have 100% control of what you view, read or hear without some apparatchik arbitrarily deciding for you.

As the debates have revealed, Joe Biden is a Trojan horse for a radically left agenda.

Your taxes will be raised, the Supreme Court will be packed and the GND is a formality. The Obamagate investigation will be buried and you can be assured the Democrats will embark on a 4-yr revenge fest based on their own.

We aren’t saying Trump is perfect. Far from it. Yet he hasn’t started a war, he’s got NATO to reach into their wallets, signed historic peace deals people like John Kerry said would never happen. He achieved record low unemployment rates for blacks, Hispanics and women. He is about to get pharma prices slashed 90% and is the only candidate that will hold China to account.

This is your country at stake. Ultimately we think that ‘lived experience’ will prevail. We think that Americans want their livelihoods back. They want the streets to be safe. They want honest cops. But they want honest politicians even moreso. They want prosperity. They want to have pride. They don’t want to be made to feel guilty for crimes they didn’t commit to people that didn’t suffer.

Say what you like about Trump, but from 10,000 miles away, none of you should expect a NY property developer to be the cleanest shirt. However the last four years of Democrat derangement have shown they are absolutely unfit to lead. Double standards, hoaxes and scandals backed by a hysteric cheerleading mainstream media.

Like Aussies, we know deep down Americans are a parochial and patriotic bunch. You have so much to be proud of and the last thing you need is to be lectured to by power mad career politicians with so little to show for other than lining their own pockets.

Do you want to die standing on your feet, or live on your knees. Because that is what is on the ballot.

God Bless America.

Regards,

FNF Media

LA Teachers’ Union school reopening demands have nothing to do with COVID-19

Who knew? One might logically think that the main reason to keep schools closed would be to mitigate the risk of a secondary outbreak of COVID-19 even though there is no evidence that kids are super-spreaders. Over 40 countries around the world have kids back at school with no mass outbreaks reported. Australia is a case in point.

The LA teacher’s union (UTLA), a part of the LA United Schools District (LAUSD) has published a report titled, ‘The Same Storm, but Different Boats: The Safe and Equitable Conditions for Starting LAUSD in 2020-21

In order to ‘safely’ reopen, it says the following demands must be met:

  1. Defund the police
  2. End chartered schools,
  3. Wealth tax on billionaires
  4. Millionaire tax,
  5. More paid sick leave,
  6. Abolition of ICE,
  7. Supporting illegal immigrants financially,
  8. Medicare for all and
  9. and an additional $250 million to reopen schools.

Naturally, UTLA President Cecily Myart-Cruz pushed back saying it was just right-wing propaganda.

Note Myart-Cruz is the Chair of the CTA Civil Rights Committee, Chair of the NEA Black Caucus and member of Black Lives Matter Los Angeles. No bias there.

One can only imagine what kids in her care are being indoctrinated with.

Why wasn’t COVID-19 the focus of reopening? Why hasn’t the UTLA talked about the 30% of kids that haven’t logged in for distance learning once? Presumably money is the cure? Forget that kids are merely pawns in the UTLA’s sinister goals.

Don’t despair, Myart-Cruz said the following in a press release,

The astronomical amount of money that billionaires, charter school chains, and corporations have received during this crisis in comparison to the support given to healthcare and low-income communities is unconscionable and contributes to the skyrocketing infection rates…During the uprisings we have seen police in militarized gear while hospital workers beg for life-saving personal protective gear. The money is there for safer communities, but it is going to the wrong places. We cannot open school buildings during this crisis without the adequate support that our educators, students and communities we serve need.”

Forget finding a cure. Just hold kids to ransom. Keep them in perpetual poverty. Complain it is all to do with systemic racism and oppression.

Although there is a sense of irony to bash billionaires, many of the left in a city and state which are Democrat-controlled.

Red Bull fires diversity directors who pushed BLM

ZeroHedge reports,

Red Bull has fired two ‘diversity directors’ who tried to force the company into virtue signalling about Black Lives Matter while also dissolving several ‘culture teams’ who were pressuring Red Bull to take a more aggressive ‘woke’ political stance.”

Who knew that some companies realise their customers don’t want political messages attached to their products? Even worse, many of these movements have been pushed by supposedly woke activists who haven’t the first clue about the manifestos of the reprehensible organizations they want their brand to support.

Look at the success of the Goya Foods pushback! Sales are booming and some supermarkets are having to ration it to a maximum of two items to placate customers.

We await the next round of plunging revenues and audience stats with the NFL, NBA and NBL. Get woke, go broke.

Experience is a hard teacher. You get the test first and the lesson afterwards.

0% math proficiency in 13 Baltimore high schools

It has become apparent that maths proficiency across 13 city run schools in Baltimore, Maryland is ZERO. Nada. Zilch. This is up from 6 schools in 2016.

One might assume that it is a lack of investment. Not so.

According to the Census Bureau, this is the seventh consecutive year the state of Maryland has had four public school districts rank in the top 10 of per pupil spending.

So for all of the destruction of monuments and painting of Black Lives Matter on many street corners, perhaps one might question improving this metric will have a much bigger impact than virtue signaling.

Baltimore has had a Democrat mayor since 1967. Or with the exception of 1963-67 when it went Republican, Democrats have been in charge for the last 80 years.

Democratic politician pens his own hate crime hoax in Oregon

You have to love it when the very systemic racism we’re told is so rife in America caused a Democratic political candidate, Jonathan Lopez, to pen and post a letter to himself and take his claim of a hate crime to the police because he couldn’t find it in reality.

His letter said,

Don’t waste your time trying to become anything in this county…we will make sure you never win and your family suffers along with all the other f–king Mexicans in the area!

Lopez took to social media to peddle his hate hoax by uploading the letter and claiming he “holds no resentment for whomever wrote this…just simply heartbroken for the lack of knowledge, education, and respect missing…I pray for you and wish you prosperity in your life.”

Hermiston Police Chief Jason Edmiston expressed his dismay after the conclusion of the investigation with the following comment:

The time spent on this fictitious claim means time lost on other matters, not to mention it needlessly adds to the incredible tension that exists in our nation today…Our investigation has shown that Mr. Lopez wrote the letter himself and made false statements to the police and on social media.”

After Lopez admitted his crime he tried to downplay it by saying that things had spiraled out of control. Really? Who knew?

Is this why Democrats want to defund the police so they don’t have the resources to catch out hoaxes?

His case will be forwarded to the Umatilla County District Attorney’s office for initiating a false report, a Class A misdemeanor in Oregon.

Welcome to 2020 where the real racists are the very people claiming they’re the victims.

Halle Berry apologizes for gender appropriation

Now acting is off limits.

Halle Berry has issued an apology to the cancel culture mob for accepting a role to play a transgender character. She will no longer play the part and will now use her cisgender voice to promote better representation. Cringeworthy.

Aren’t actors/actresses chosen for their ability to act as those they are not? Isn’t the point of picking stars to play roles connected to box office takings?

Should Berry apologize for playing a CIA agent in a James Bond flick? Should CIA agents be able to tell their own story? Where was her voice for such vocational appropriation? What about Catwoman?

Maybe a real psychopathic serial killer should have played Hannibal Lector and not Anthony Hopkins because it might have engaged in homicidal appropriation.

Here’s an idea. Perhaps Hollywood should set up a politburo staffed with radical Marxists who will dictate to producers who they can typecast in roles for their movies. Perhaps stories should also be vetted. Historical movies will erase fact and be rewritten. Truth be told we’re already there.

The movie Dunkirk was criticized for not having enough actors of colour or women in it and First Man deleted the scene of Neil Armstrong planting an American flag on the moon, sort of a significant point in history that celebrated American exceptionalism.

Self loathing is just getting so pathetic and boring.

Harvard graduate who threatened to stab people missed lecture on personal responsibility

Harvard graduate Claira Janover has lost her job at Deloitte after she went on a TikTok rant saying she’d stab people who said “all lives matter” and watch them bleed out.

Who knew?

She made a follow up video complaining that horrible Trump supporters cost her that job.

Welcome to 2020 where personal responsibility doesn’t exist. Saying stupid things (even if in jest) with the hope of boosting social media following in the attempts to appeal to being woke to win approval is somehow acceptable.

Harvard could never have given her the lesson she has given herself. Self-entitlement 101 could be a course they need to build into the ethics curriculum.

1/6 BLM protestors are black

Pew Research notes in a recent survey that only 1/6 BLM protestors are black. Over 2/5 are white and 1/5 Hispanic. 79% self identify as Democrats. 17% as Republicans.

BET founder Robert Johnson claimed that,

white people have the mistaken assumption that black people are sitting around cheering for them saying ‘Oh, my God, look at these white people [tearing down statues]. They’re doing something so important for us…You know, black people, in my opinion, black people laugh at white people who do this the same way we laugh at white people who say we got to take off the TV shows….these actions are simply being done by white people to assuage their guilt. Why not ask us what we think first’?…It’s not going to give a kid whose parents can’t afford college money to go to college…”

Hence the Babylon Bee parody on whites speaking on behalf of blacks was so spot on earlier last week.

Welcome to CHAZ – viral tourist video

Benny Johnson take a tour of CHAZ to expose the hypocrisy of the movement in this video.