Healthcare

How to clean up in the adult diaper boom

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Zerohedge is reporting on the large market scope for adult diapers.  One-fifth of the world’s population will be of retirement age by 2070. The beauty for the diaper manufacturers is that adult diapers have 4x the margins of infant diapers despite exactly the same ingredients and production techniques. Asia is ageing fast, especially China and Japan. Incontinence affects 40% of people over 65yo so the market dynamics have rock solid foundations, even if wearers don’t.

Unicharm and P&G are two monsters in the diaper game. But who makes the equipment that makes them?

In a former life as an equity analyst, CM covered a business called Zuiko Corp (6279 JP) which made the machines that make the diapers. It is a captive business. All machines are built to spec. 50 metres long and weighing 20 tonnes. 850 diapers per minute.

The company has the largest share of the market in Asia. It used to be around 80% when CM covered the company and supply chains are very sticky. Zuiko is owned c.10% by Unicharm in Japan.

Zuiko has had quite patchy performance, despite the wonderful structural backdrop. Private equity must look to a buyout. The company has pretty poor investor relations and shareholder communications. The shares are in the dumps, at 7-year lows. It is quite hard to find a business that has such favourable, defensive growth characteristics which is in need of proper leadership.

Zuiko has effectively no debt, ¥10bn  (c. US$90million) in cash which represents around 48% of its market cap. Looks like one for the SMSF.

Presumably…

…misandristic slogans will be OK in the People’s Democratic Republic of Victoria.

The bigger question is who will be the arbiter of what is deemed inappropriate or not? We can absolutely bet the farm that the people selected to enforce this being the least qualified in being able to administer it fairly.

No one should have an issue with holding appropriate standards for slogans on vehicles (e.g. no profanity/nudity) but is there a pressing need to have apparatchiks pushing agendas on what they deem appropriate for the rest of us? How many vehicles fall foul of these crimes?

One can be certain that if a car is adorned with slogans that crudely vilify white heterosexual Christian males it won’t be deregistered. Perhaps Victoria should change its number plate slogan to “Victoria – the re-education state.

Perhaps Victorian Premier Dan Andrews should spend more time reflecting on his injecting room policy where the CEO of the centre has been stood down after some staffers were caught dealing drugs to the addicts that use the facilities. Who’d a thunk?

RACGP alarmism should be driving the AMA not climate

AMA.pngThe Royal Australian College of General Practitioners logo

Now it all makes sense. The Australian Medical Association’s (AMA) latest push on climate change doesn’t appear to be about saving the planet but looking to safeguard its own survival. AMA’s main rival association, the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP) seems to be on the right prescription medication as far as membership growth and revenue goes. 

The AMA’s climate push seems to be a concerted effort to lock in future revenues by appealing to students. AMA ‘Associate Medical Student Members‘ have ballooned in the last two years from 8,664 to 15,311 to offset the (pardon the pun) flatline in regular members which have hovered a shade under 30,000 members since 2016. Previous AMA annual reports (AR) make no mention of hard membership numbers. The 2015 AR made reference to 30,000+ members which suggest it wasn’t 31,000+. Students, who now represent over 1/3rd of members, can join for free. Undoubtedly the strategy lies in the hope those students roll over to become fully paid members when they start to practice.

Last year, Dr Bill Coote, former Secretary-General of the AMA (1992-98) wrote in Medical Republic,

In 1962, more than 95% of doctors belonged to the AMA. By 1987 it was 50%. AHPRA reports that in 2016 there were 107,179 registered medical practitioners. The 2016 AMA annual report notes a membership of 29,425. That is 27% of doctors.

Since 2012, AMA annual membership collections have shown relatively anaemic growth from around $11m in 2012 to $12.4m in 2018 from its 29,659 full paying members. Revenues have shown similarly slow growth. Revenues (ex any asset sales) have grown from $20.29m in 2012 to $22.35m in 2018. 10% growth over 6 years.

What of the RACGP?

The RACGP has 35,385 full members and 5,493 student members. Moreover, the group collected $34.6m in membership fees in 2018, near as makes no difference three times the AMA.

Isn’t this just a classic case of customers appreciating what they pay for? Will those AMA student members work out – when forced to shell out hard dollars on membership – as they embark on their medical career that the RACGP is the go-to organisation? Any manner of conference cocktail parties will undoubtedly whisper the realities of membership benefits of both organisations. Surely the more seasoned doctors will make their preferences known. After all, students are more likely to pin their formative years to guru practitioners in the profession rather than lean on the musings of an association that provides cheaper hire car tariffs and frequent flyer club perks.

Revenues for the RACGP have more than doubled from $38.6m in 2012 to $83.1m in 2018.

Maybe Dr. Coote has found the problem when he wrote, ”

AMA members’ fees fund the Medical Journal of Australia. The MJA is uniquely positioned to promote serious commentary on the policy, regulatory and economic changes reshaping Australian medical practice, but now seems to prioritise the interests of academic doctors...The decline in AMA membership penetration from 95% to 50% to 27% of doctors is a significant historical trend.  A US management guru once suggested, organisations are at risk if they respond to a changing environment by redoubling their efforts to do things the way they have always done them…Let’s hope the AMA does not become the Kodak of Australian medical history.”

Climate change might seem to be a woke avenue to do things differently at the AMA, but surely it stands to learn a lot more by studying why the RACGP is surgically keeping it in the ICU rather than pursue fields it has no expertise in an attempt to revive itself. If the AMA board pursues such amputated strategies it is bound to find itself running out of bandages before its members realise that cauterizing membership cash flow is the only viable long term option.

Thank the progressive left for this

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Top marks to the progressive left for generating so much horsesh*t that allows this type of behaviour. If you need an emotional support anything outside of a blanket, you probably shouldn’t be flying. What if CM wanted to bring an emotional support elephant? Why are my rights not equally respected? Supporting mental health is one thing. Caving to the preposterous is another.

One has to wonder whether this violates FAA rules as regards airline safety in an emergency. Will airlines have to retrofit all fleets with horse-sized life jackets?

109 minutes NSW politicians should spend before voting on abortion

As the NSW Gov’t seeks to rush through amendments to legislation on abortion today, this is a movie that people who hold strong opinions (on either side) and parliamentarians would do well to spare 109 minutes for.

It depicts Abby Johnson, the main character and director of an abortion clinic, Planned Parenthood. It shows how she came full circle when she actually got to witness an abortion live from the procedural end. Despite having two abortions that she admitted were sacrificed  “on the altar of convenience,” this event caused her to quit. 

A rather damning insight into the ‘industry’. It is really well worth watching and perhaps better education and support might be an amendment Berijiklian considers. Why not enforce child support to ensure potential deadbeat father’s to be can’t escape responsibility? Why should the state be forced to pick up the whole tab for single mothers? Maybe couples should be made to watch this movie to better educate themselves on the procedure.

Making it safe is one thing. Making people aware of the pros and cons is another. The latter seems to be woefully catered for.

Remember the stats folks. 56 million abortions every year worldwide. 50 million died in the 6 years of WWII. 20% of fetuses in Europe never make it out of the womb. To think the population crisis it faces?

Pro-Choice will argue access to proper medical facilities is paramount. There is a good point to be made to avoid dangerous backyard abortions. Perhaps better legislation will mandate that education sessions on options for pregnant women that may dissuade abortion is no bad thing. At the moment, little seems to be done in that regard. Make people better aware before making such a literally ‘life-changing‘ decision.

Jacinda’s Way

Image result for dan andrews jacinda ardern

NZ PM Jacinda Ardern is in Australia and unsurprisingly the media is giddy with delight. Before we have Lisa Wilkinson write another open letter to ScoMo, What a surprise the NZ PM kicked off her tour in the Democratic People’s Republic of Victoria alongside Chief Commissar Dan Andrews.

While her wellness budget has been sold as a savior, remember in Australia our current commitments in wellness already outweigh NZ’s on a per capita basis. Maybe that’s why 570,000 Kiwis live here and only 39,000 Aussies in NZ.

CM’s budget comparison can be found here.