Bernie

Biden faded fast and choked in the last section

First of all, Kristen Welker did a very good job as moderator. Even Trump praised her.

Joe Biden started off well but faded fast in the back half of the debate. He didn’t handle the saga around his son, Hunter, well. He sounded rattled and will only draw more eyeballs to the suppressed media coverage.

Trump explained his points far better that in the first debate. Getting rid of COVID in the first question allowed the more powerful points for Trump in the back half where he could made significant ground around the economy, foreign policy, race and health.

Trump executed well by slamming Biden for being a “politician” who promises stuff but doesn’t deliver. That he hasn’t achieved the things he proposes now in 47 years in politics or 8 years as VP. Biden even disparaged Obama by saying he can do things he wants if he is president.

When Biden raised Hitler in the debate, he started to back pedal fast. Why talk about Nazism?

Biden’s stupidity was to touch on $15 minimum wages to help small business. Is he nuts? What small business in trouble thinks that recovery will come through higher wages?

Biden asked people to fact check his position on fracking. He said he wouldn’t ban it in today’s debate but is on tape countless times saying he would. Too easy to prove he is lying. Biden’s renewables push was hopeless and Trump made it clear why the US doesn’t need to be in the Paris Accord.

At the very end Biden chucked the oil industry under the bus in the closing remarks of the climate change section. Trump pushed him and he took the bait to say he wants to phase it out for good. Surely not the thing to say in fossil fuel dependent swing states.

In summary, this election will be determined by “lived experience“. Nothing is more powerful than becoming irate at a politician telling you what you aren’t experiencing.

We think the actions of mostly despotic Democratic mayors and governors throughout coronavirus have sent a negative message about what happens when citizens lose control and cede power to law makers.

We still believe Trump has got this.

Patriot Pushback Pending

We don’t intend to make any informed comments about the police shooting of a Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin. We don’t have enough context. Best not join the chorus of mainstream media which will seize on any edited video clip to feed a narrative and run with the headline for days instead of ignoring it like they did with the murder of 5yo Cannon Hinnant.

Let’s not even begin to discuss Democrat Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, who despite the lack of evidence, immediately sided with the mob. As is most often the case, evidence will show that the whole situation could have been avoided were instructions followed. That isn’t to condone excessive force but to recognize edited clips can misrepresent realities.

So what of those businesses and houses of prayer that proudly displayed ‘Black Lives Matter’ outside? Well it only goes to prove that the mob doesn’t care. One would think insurance companies were encouraging BLM signs in shop front windows as a way to help policy holders lower premiums. The appeasers were eaten first in Kenosha. A car dealership was torched. Why do innocent business owners end up victims?

At what point, if they haven’t already, will Americans stop tolerating any more protestors shining flashlights through their windows in the middle of the night? What will they tell their terrorized children who are woken up by obscenities yelled in their suburban Portland neighborhoods demanding they abandon their properties?

Where was the condemnation during the Democratic National Convention? Why no mention of the riots? Oh, that’s right. They’re all peaceful protestors.

We think that the strategy of chaos hurting Trump’s re-election chances will spectacularly backfire. All of the platitudes that parsed the lips of the hypocritical and divisive Obamas or woke celebrities at the DNC only reinforced they are the party for the elites.

The media may be complicit in cheerleading but ‘lived experience‘ is one factor that no amount of political bluster or fancy journalism can overcome. It was the same in 2016.

Citizens are rightly furious. Despotic mayors and governors have subjected them to unnecessary economic pain and stripped them of their dignity through coronavirus lockdowns but stay silent through the mayhem of BLM and Antifa. The biased media only amplifies their rage.

Normally, a dud economy would be an election killer for an incumbent. This time, the sinister politics of the opposition will force many fence sitters to bite their lip and tolerate 4 more years of Trump’s vulgarity. We think a landslide awaits, albeit with an ugly 75 days leading into it.

In the words of Nancy Pelosi, “people will do what they will do.”

Ilhan Omar bites the very hand that feeds her

You have to hand it to the radical left of the Democrat Party. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar said that America’s economic and political systems must be “dismantled.”

What a way to show Americans a sense of deep gratitude for not only rescuing the Somali born asylum seeker from a refugee camp in Kenya but having a system that allowed her to be elected to office of that same country.

Isn’t she just the perfect example to help describe how rife entrenched systemic racism, blatant sexism, white supremacy and Islamophobia are in America as to enable such a story to occur??

The mind boggles. We’re quite sure most Americans want new migrants like Omar to assimilate with their culture rather than her to become a conditional citizen that requires the generous host to accommodate her deluded belief system. As a free citizen she could repudiate those that saved her and move to a country that celebrates all that she desires. Yet she doesn’t.

Hypocrisy writ large. Still it is this type of speech that works in Trump’s favour. Keep up the good work. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Bernie Sanders finally creates value

SPX

Democratic Party hopeful Bernie Sanders announced overnight that he is dropping out of the presidential primaries. For the first time ever, his actions actually led to substantial wealth creation, sending the S&P500 up 3.4% on a $21 trillion market cap index.

All jokes aside, we thought markets have found a (short-term) bottom. S&P has reclaimed almost half of the peak since the corona-crash. We question the sustainability of this rally. At the moment the trend is our friend. We pointed out that the kitchen sink would be thrown and provide one last hurrah before the realities of businesses coping with a return to business played out.

As the lockdown continues, it is very hard to determine what the actual prints will be for large-scale macro-economic data and where that fits into expectations. We know that the Fed has already been out hosing the credit markets with promises of unlimited QE.

The housing market is already giving us hints. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Forbearance and Call Volume Survey, the total number of loans in forbearance grew from 0.25% to 2.66% from March 2 to April 1, 2020, with mortgages backed by Ginnie Mae seeing the largest growth (from 0.19% to 4.25%).

While not strictly an apples for apples comparison, the Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked in Domestic Offices, Top 100 Banks Ranked by Assets peaked at 12.89% in 2010.

Plenty of trouble ahead. The market complacency is quite astonishing.

MSM relishes trade of economic depression via pandemic over Trump as POTUS w/ no virus

Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) knows no bounds. Yes, the mainstream media (MSM) is celebrating the milestone that the Dow is below the level when Donald Trump was inaugurated.

We have always said that if Trump continued to boast about market gains he would have to wear it on the downside too. Alas, he is being hoisted by his own petard.

Sadly, as much as CNN and others relish the though of Trump out of office, we sincerely doubt the vast majority of Americans would trade a pandemic with catastrophic unemployment over business as usual before the WuFlu with a Trump at the helm.

Markets are forward looking. They anticipate where corporate earnings are likely to be. This market rout has little to do with Trump’s policies in isolation.

We’ve said repeatedly that global central banks have created a debt bomb through reckless monetary policies over the last two decades. They have proved just how little impact cutting rates to zero or throwing $850bn in handouts has on markets. They’re out of ammunition. Confidence is shot. We’re in uncharted territory.

Boeing is the perfect canary in the coal mine. The 737MAX debacle which is imminently due to be on sale again to a market that has effectively vanished. Airlines are cutting routes and it will be up to the zombie lending cycles of aircraft leasing companies to renegotiate rates so they can keep the patient alive. Airlines will push out deliveries.

However before Boeing’s core business troubles, the management embarked on short term incentive chasing buybacks to the tune of $43bn since 2013. The company is trading negative equity and has drawn down ALL of its credit lines ($13.8bn) and now wants a handout.

All of this is the product of two decades of mindless expediency. Governments are just as culpable for allowing greed to override common sense. No lessons have been learnt since 2000 and especially 2008. Blue chips like Boeing and GE are now heading to record lows because of it. Ford Motor is rated junk. How long before Boeing and GE fall foul of the same problem?

We are particularly interested in the next set of results from Parker Hannifin. It is like the global industrial hardware store. All of the major manufacturers use Parker for parts – pumps, hydraulics, pneumatics, valves, hoses etc. When we see Parker’s upcoming report on order flows we can gauge how bad it is at the manufacturing coal face.

This time we are staring at a “global depression” and it would be nice to think the MSM would try to put some context around the ramifications of this virus and the raft of economy killing policies governments around the world are introducing instead of just blaming Trump. Yes, he’s been his normal self during this but is he responsible for the actions of other countries going into shutdowns? Seriously? Do the US Coronavirus stats stack up poorly vs countries like Italy on a relative or absolute basis? No. Moreover COVID-19 cases in the US are a mere fraction of H1N1 swine flu cases which the media made nowhere near the level of hysteria as now. It’s a disgrace how far the media will go for clickbait.

Had the world’s central banks behaved sensibly to stop excessive debt and allowed markets to function freely, this pandemic would have had far less effect than it is now because we would have had the ammunition to fight this war of attrition. Now all our governments and regulators are doing is moving phantom armies across maps trying to stop economic Armageddon.

Latest Bernie vs Trump poll

The latest Rasmussen poll notes the following:

President Trump would KO Democrat front-runner Bernie Sanders if the 2020 presidential election were held today.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Trump earning 50% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Sanders’ 43%. Seven percent (7%) are undecided. 

The incumbent president wins 84% of the Republican vote and leads 49% to 39% among voters not affiliated with either major party. Sanders captures 75% of Democrats, but nearly one-in-four Democratic voters (22%) opt for Trump instead.”

As with polls, there will be any number showing Sanders in front. After countless polls pointed to a Clinton coronation, how wrong they were. The betting agencies even started paying out early!

Hard to believe that Sanders has a shot despite solid crowd support which we have commented on before. This comment from someone to his social media page which discussed universal healthcare and free education is to the point.

I’m a middle class blue collar worker and things are better now than they were in 2016. I don’t want to be taxed higher and my job provides perfectly fine health care benefits that I pay into. I don’t want them f•cked with by someone who has done nothing their whole life except pump up communist dictators. You have brought nothing to the table in your years in government.

You should also be encouraging people that can’t afford college to go learn a f•cking trade instead of taking loans they can’t pay because they majored in some bullshit nonsense that isn’t needed.”

Bernie can whip up crowds too

17,000 showed up to Bernie Sanders’ latest rally in Washington. We shouldn’t underestimate the scope of his support despite not being able to cost healthcare for all, free education or canceling student loan debt. Some pundits put it at $60 trillion.

While we still think Trump will win 2020, the Democrats need to carefully weigh their hatred of the president vs their dislike for Sanders stealing the Democratic nomination as an independent. The DNC is no stranger to dismissing democratic process in the primaries.

Wit & wisdom of Mike Bloomberg’s locker room talk

 

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Will the public honestly care about what Mike Bloomberg said 30 years ago? How soon we forget that Donald Trump’s “grab ’em by the p#ssy” comments were in the final months of the 2016 election campaign. It was on the ballot and it wasn’t enough for voters to go into meltdown and pick someone who had higher standards. Or were Hillary Clinton’s standards so low that Trump was the lesser of two evils?

Mike Bloomberg’s book, ‘The Portable Bloomberg: The Wit and Wisdom of Michael Bloomberg,‘ is doing the rounds, courtesy of the Washington Post, which presumably is hoisting the flag of Bernie Sanders. In it Mike Bloomberg says,

On Negotiation

What do I want? A 10-year contract, an automatic extension and I want you to pay me. And I want a blow job from XXXX. Have you seen XXXX lately? Not bad for 50.”

Keep your legs closed

On being told “No”

Let me tell you something, buddy boy, I have pictures of you and they’re not with your wife.

Characterizing of a Competitor

Cokehead, womanizing, fag.

On the Bloomberg terminal

It will do everything. including give you a blow job. I guess that puts a lot of you girls out of business.

On computers

You know why computers will never take the place of people? Because a computer would say the sex of the person giving you a blow job doesn’t matter.

On the marriage of his employees

“Are you pregnant?”

“Male or female?”

On being asked a sport that doesn’t use balls

“Lesbian sex”

In today’s cancel culture, the past is the most formidable weapon to smash people over the head with.

FNF Media believes in “equality.” Therefore anyone that tries to smear someone for something said three decades ago, should be open to having their own past dredged up and made public.

In any event, Bloomberg’s quotes will unlikely affect his campaign run. Bernie Sanders took his honeymoon in communist Russia which is far more offensive!

Rattlesnakes are rattling

Always fun to see how politicians on the same side eviscerate each other on policy and character.

It was no different with the GOP when Trump was hammering “low energy Jeb” and “Little Marco.” In 2016. Ted Cruz even challenged Trump to a “Mano a Mano” debate such was the divide.

The problem for the Democrats is if the DNC stiffs Bernie Sanders again, his supporters will stay away in November and one has to question whether he will rush to endorse Bloomberg as he reluctantly did with Hillary Clinton.

The funny thing is that in today’s world financial market players rely on over regulation to squeeze the smaller guys out. Get politicians to make the costs of onerous compliance so high that the larger firms gain the spoils.

So Bernie would be doing the financial firms as big a favor as Bloomberg and his “crooked mates” on Wall St by putting more red tape in place. So much for helping out the poor and oppressed.

A message from Bernie Sanders’ field officer

We very much doubt Bernie Sanders would endorse what his field officer said. Perhaps his staffer is just disgruntled that Bernie cut his hours