Most reliable indicator of fear surrounding COVID-19 is not what you think

Our trip to the Aldi supermarket in the affluent suburb of Mosman in Sydney, Australia last Saturday revealed one immutable truth. That even the elderly have absolutely no concerns about social distancing when fighting over limited supplies of Lacura face creams that were on the ‘special buys’ list. We think this is probably the most accurate indicator of “fear” surrounding COVID-19 – absolutely none. We’ve seen more crowded Japanese subway carriages at peak hour.

Forget hand sanitiser, masks and respecting social distance. Just push, jostle, elbow, bustle and fight to the death to lay one’s hands on a $19 moisturizer. It felt like toilet paper rationing all over again.

Forgive the preamble.

We have analysed the latest COVID-19 deaths as a percentage of state populations across America and Australia to get a feel for the reality and check whether media hysteria is unfounded.

New York State was the worst of all, representing 3x the national average. 10 of the top 17 states with rates above the national average were Democrat controlled (blue columns).

In aggregate, c.121,000 have died under Democrat-controlled states and 78,400 under Republican-controlled states (red columns) as at Sept 21, 2020 according to CDC data.

We also note that Victoria, a state in Australia, has a death rate that still remains extremely low on a relative basis (despite being 10x the rest of the country combined) yet has some of the harshest lockdown laws.

Comparing Victoria to US states that imposed no lockdowns at all, the numbers don’t justify a draconian curfew. Utah has a population about half that of Victoria and a death toll from COVID at 50% of Victoria, despite no lockdown imposed at all. One could make a case for population density but why does NSW have 1/10th the death toll with similar demographics and a relatively open economy?

Note that all US states that had no lockdown had death tolls at least half the national average. Every single one is Republican-controlled.

In America, 99.94% of the country has no succumbed to coronavirus. In Victoria, 99.99% of the state population hasn’t died from it. In Australia 99.997% of citizens have managed to survive.

The data is self explanatory. US deaths are at 1/3rd the levels at the peak but the media can’t stray from the narrative that the risks of a new wave are around the corner. No. The virus remains contagious but not that virulent. Someone mentioned an election soon…

We shall be updating more data in coming days. Suffice to say, economies should be reopened and special attention paid to protecting more vulnerable members of society (who clearly weren’t at Aldi Mosman).

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