Month: July 2016

The Social (Security) State

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Zerohedge reports that the US social security bill would make it the 6th largest economy in the world at around $2.8 trillion. 110mn people are on some form of means-tested hand outs.

There are currently 126 million prime working age persons in the US between 25 -54 years of age (+5mn since turn of Century) but the 77.1mn FT employees has dropped 1.2mn over the same period. Only 61% of employees are full time ( from 66%) At the same time consumption has leapt $3.1tn (+38%) a lot of it thanks to the government transfer payments at nearly 2X the 3.3% growth of nominal wage and salary disbursements.

With US GDP in 2Q coming in at half expectations and 1Q revised down below 1% not to mention a softening Europe and a China in trouble things do not look sustainable.

I’ve also argued for some time that the quality of employment is declining regardless of what the headline unemployment rate might show. Poverty is a growing phenomenon worldwide  but with central banks losing the battle and government and private sector indebtedness growing policy options are too scary for incumbent governments to face. Hence the rise of the antiestablishment forces.

US & EU 2Q GDP miss by a country mile.

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Obama might have been championing his economic credentials at the DNC but the US 2Q GDP growth missed by a large margin. Market forecasts came in at 2.6% but reality was 1.2%. Moreover 1Q GDP was revised down from 1.1% to 0.8%. No wonder poverty is a growing phenomenon across the world. Central banks are struggling to keep the patient alive.

EU 2Q GDP slipped to 0.3% from 0.6% in 1Q. France saw zero growth in 2Q from 0.7%. Inflation of 0.2% is way behind target.

So central banks are losing control. The ECB is stuck in group think and the expectation is things will get worse from here.

Boris Johnson’s description of Hillary Clinton wasn’t far off at the DNC

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Boris Johnson once said if Hillary Clinton : “She’s got dyed blonde hair and pouty lips, and a steely blue stare, like a sadistic nurse in a mental hospital.”

That was a pretty apt description of Hillary Clinton’s DNC speech. She looked angry through much of it. She didn’t look like someone in control and even said of Bernie supporters “don’t boo, VOTE!”  This is not what Sanders’ fans want to hear. They need to be shown humility not hostility. It is a dangerous game to assume they’ll vote for Hillary given the DNC scandal on the deliberate side lining of Bernie who incidentally has returned to bring an independent.

I’m not sure whether “angry” was the best face to be showing at the DNC. She would have been better showing a face of neutral confidence. One that showed she wasn’t phased by The Donald. She should have laughed off the Russian email debate with a “Really? What leader would honestly ask a foreign power to hack our agencies?” She came  across as highly condescending in her speech. She looked as if she was scolding children. However confidence wasn’t part of tonight’s repertoire.

She made some fair points about Trump but not in a manner that will gel with his base. Let’s see  how the polls reflect her speech and fanfare of the DNC. My guess is a muted response.

The biggest threat for this debate will be more Wikileaks in the days leading into the presidential debates. This could prove highly embarrassing with little time to prepare responses. It should provide the type of ammo that Trump can use to discredit her. Prepare for the mud slinging.

Kevin Rudd is perfect for the UN top role.

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To get the top job at the UN narcissism is probably the most important trait to possess. Kofi Annan, Ban-ki Moon and so on. I encourage you to fill in an application form on the UN website. It is all about diversity not ability. The pay grades are astonishing enough and you can collect massive loadings including childcare, schooling and housing assistance. I worked out if I was in Tokyo I could collect around $350,000 + benefits. Even a security guard in Tokyo would collect $140,000!!

The irony of the UN is it is a body designed for grand standing with no real end responsibility. It tries to force the hand of governments as a ruler on high.  It preaches the global warming faith, human rights and many other causes with perhaps the worst level of governance standards. If you look at sitting members on the Human Rights Council (incl. China, Congo and Saudi Arabia) it is littered with countries that have the most terrible human rights track records. One would think they’d been appointed for “training” than “teaching”!

The global warming faith (IPCC) has been embroiled in so many scandals, climb downs and retractions as to beggar belief yet they insist in continuing global COP summits where 50,000 Eco warriors spew tonnes of their most feared CO2 into the atmosphere flying from all over the globe to seek grants to fund their nests. It is shameless yet governments fearing social media pressure pander to it.  When you look beyond headlines it is clear there is no real commitment from the countries that matter – China, India, Russia and the US, responsible for 75% of global emissions. It is sold as commitment and the Chinese can use their need to clean their environment packaged as saving the planet. Russia’s commitment was written on the back of a napkin and the US made sure there were no legal liabilities.

So to Australia putting forward former PM Kevin Rudd. PM Turnbull might claim endorsing him as bipartisanship but the reality is there couldn’t be a more inappropriate person for the job from a “showcasing Australia to the world” perspective yet ironically a person overqualified for the narcissistic requirements essential for the role.

Seat fillers at the DNC

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A Democrat supporter, Josh Fox, has sent out a video showing how empty the DNC has become post the nomination of Hillary Clinton during her televised short acceptance speech. While not the grand finale speech she’ll make I did find it strange she was t there in person to accept it.

Fox went on to say in his video,“This is not voter enthusiasm…. I can’t believe my eyes. I’ve never seen anything like this. This is the primetime of the Democratic National Convention right after the nomination of Hillary Clinton and this place is emptied out like crazy. I’m stunned.”

One other Democrat supporter confirmed the DNC was paying for some 700 seat fillers to cheer and support as well as hold paraphernalia for the length of the show.

I’ve criticized the DNC for playing it too safe and not fighting fire with fire. Hillary Clinton has no “moral high ground” among the people but instead of hiding behind Hollywood, cheer leaders, diversity  and even Barack Obama (who spoke very well) she is coming across as “establishment”.

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It’s too old hat. This election campaign has been surreal, focusing on victimology and gender equality rather than real issues the majority care about.

Trump was silly to speak of Russian’s hacking and even if he spoke of it “sarcastically” it still stands on record.

Be prepared for more reality TV . This election is all for the Democrats to lose. The more they play to their current strategy the higher the risk .

Chancellor Merkel ist kaput!

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Can Germans honestly think Merkel is on the same planet when she says:

“We believe in the right of everyone to seek his fortune and live, to the respect for the other and tolerance. We know that our free life is stronger than any terrorist. Let’s give the terrorists the answer by living our values confidently. And as we affirm these values throughout Europe. Now more than ever.”

Sadly dear Chancellor Merkel these people don’t have German values and by getting the Mayor of Cologne to encourage German females to dress more appropriately to avoid unwanted advances shows you respect their (lack of) values over those of your own citizens. It is a disgrace and if you don’t resign you will be voted out. I shake my head. You should learn from the French experience that even known criminal terrorists with locator anklets on will still garrote 86yo Catholic priests. But don’t let that issue get in the way of your ignorance. The Swiss have the answers.

The DNC is all about Victimology & Hypocrisy

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It seems everyone is a victim at the DNC. Whether the farcical promotion of illegal immigrants on day one. Or feminists with a “chronic reproductive illness (presumably code for lesbian)” on Day 2. Victimology is a DNC trump (no pun intended) card. Even Michelle Obama talked of her kids playing in the White House gardens which was built by slaves. Victimology at every turn. To turn the argument on its head hasn’t America ticked the diversity box by democratically electing a black President twice? I’m not saying America doesn’t have race issues in certain quarters but isn’t that proof of the pudding? Hillary as a white woman should by rights have a less challenging climb to the top job over a rival Obama called “orange”given their proposition.

I increasingly worry as a heterosexual white male that I fail the Democratic identity kit therefore making me a victim. Perhaps I should become a confused bisexual Muslim and colour my skin like Rachel Dolezal to get multiple free kicks from the diversity brigade. It’s pathetic. Even former Aussie PM Julia Gillard has weighed in to support Hillary Clinton with the gender bias garbage. Julia Gillard was criticized harshly during her term because she was plain hopeless. She was the first female Prime Minister never to be elected twice. But oh how she played the gender card. Her party promoted her beyond her abilities. A fact and ZERO to do with gender. Quite frankly if a female leader must resort to using the gender card she’s not fit for office. One of my favorite speeches was the no confidence motion passed against Thatcher in 1990. She single handedly smashed every Labour MP’s questions in such a demolition job that she joked their weakness made them “ladies”. She used her gender as a weapon showing it was irrelevant. I encourage everyone to listen. The most impressive PMQ I’ve ever ever heard. Link here. It was such a drubbing she even remarked “I’m enjoying this!” That is GIRL POWER! It makes Micelle Obama’s speech look amateur by comparison. The eloquence, intelligence and wit.

This constant pandering to minorities is such rubbish. Why aren’t these politicians talking about real issues? The world economy is set to plunge off a cliff and the DNC is roping in celebrities, arguably the most out of touch people on the planet, to tell us why voting for Hillary Clinton is the right thing to do. How could the growing financially oppressed take an in and out of rehab multi millionaire celebrity’s endorsement? These idiots are babbling over their crises and taking every opportunity to raise their own dwindling profiles through the media circus surrounding the DNC. People aren’t atupid.

No, the Dems have to champion Victimology! One could hardly call Hillary Clinton a victim given she got let off by the FBI in such a brazen rigged  fashion. That her own party’s chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz was behind the deliberate shafting of an old man of her faith even using their religion to undermine him. The height of hypocrisy yet Clinton hired her to join her campaign. Double down on the hypocrisy yet claim victimology at all the Sanders supporters that booed her.

So the DNC also bangs on about  sexual orientation which is frankly irrelevant. I and I’m sure many others don’t need to know what people wish to do in the bedroom. Obama has spent so much time ramming transgender bathrooms in schools and removing gender titles in the military which is overwhelmingly male. As a citizen I want my military to have fangs not hold special LGBTQIA pride days. If I asked for a white heterosexual pride day I’d be instantly branded a bigot. The diversity crew need to wake up to the fact that the more Victimology goes on the more minorities are created who end up wanting to maintain that status given all the preferential treatment it accrues.

Diversity creates the exact opposite of what it intends. It divides and categorizes. If I want to fill in a job application now I wonder if electing LGBT on my form will bump me up the priority list so companies can hit diversity quotas. The diversity garbage I read regularly on LinkedIn by Unilever CEO Polman would turn me instantly off as a shareholder. By the very championing of his diversity bias I am confident they aren’t hiring the best but the most diverse. All I want as a shareholder is my board maximizing returns. If the best results are brought through 100% women based on meritocracy I’m all for it.

We’ve strayed a tad off topic but the point to be made to to the DNC is that ‘diversity’ is not what the growing number of destitute and battlers want. They want security, stability and prosperity not fluffy ideals that prevent it.

So keep wheeling in the celebrities, minoroties, feminists, LGBT activists at the DNC and drive the disaffected further into Trump’s grasp. Yes, you’re really that out of touch with your constituents. They may be uneducated but they can see straight through the diversity and victimology because they are the ones most in need of support not platitudes! If you get rapturous applause within a DNC don’t think they speak for the whole.

The irony is Trump has the highest support of blacks, Hispanics and gays of any Republican candidate in history. Makes you think why would the people most stereotypically likely to want diversity choose to back a racist, bigoted misogynist? I can’t work it out either! Maybe because they see his authenticity behind the brashness.

Turning the past into the future…

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Who remembers the last time they went to a public library? Not me. Must be decades. With everything available at our fingertips it is nice to see a council reinvest into one. What Woollahra Council has done is convert a seemingly boring staid analogue world and digitized it. There are PCs, USB charge points, meeting rooms, a kids slippery slide and more. Yes, you can even borrow books. The facility is pretty full.

It’s nice to see that such places aren’t closing but being reinvigorated to the new era. We talk of the importance of education and what better way to teach the kids of today to find a quiet place to study.

According to research by the House of Commons library commissioned by the Labour Party, 282m visits were paid to libraries in England in 2013-14, compared with 322m four years earlier. The percentage of those that visited a library aged 16-24 fell from 40% to 32%. In the UK a law passed in 1964 requires councils to fund a public library but austerity has forced hours to be cut it closures to ensue.

A pleasant surprise to see a library modernizing and creating a sense of community much missing in today’s self-centered world.

From Russia with Love

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The accusation that Putin is aiding and abetting Trump smacks of desperation with the leaked emails. The NY Times is reporting that Russia might be behind the Wikileaks sources quoting DNC organizers.

Cyber espionage has been around for decades. It is electronic spying. I’m sure the Russians, Chinese and North Koreans all spend copious time trying to hack into the numerous US agencies to gain tactical advantage and vice Versace. What is new? I very much doubt that it has been a recent thing. Besides Putin treats Obama with utter contempt. Such is President Obama’s weakness Putin gave him 2 hours warning to get his special ops out of Syria before he would start bombing. That’s a heads up befitting the Luxembourg Army not the most powerful nation in the world.

Still it begs the most important question- had the DNC or Hillary Clinton not sought subterfuge or deliberately ignore national security protocol and lying about it afterwards would there be an issue? Trying to argue ethics over this point is rather redundant. The little people (the have nots) only see such exposure as more evidence of why the haves don’t care about them.